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Floods and Exports: An Empirical Study on Natural Disaster Shocks in Southeast Asia

Author

Listed:
  • Kaori Tembata

    (Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University)

  • Kenji Takeuchi

    (Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University)

Abstract

This study analyzes the effects of climate-related disasters on international trade in Southeast Asia. We use monthly trade data to examine the relationship between disaster shocks and exports. The empirical analysis shows that natural disasters have a significant negative effect on exports. The estimation results suggest that flooding causes immediate export losses of USD 305-557 million. In addition, we find that the effect persists in the post-disaster period, with floods causing annual export losses of USD 2.54 billion in total. We further investigate the impact of disasters by product group and show that disasters are negatively associated with the exports of agricultural and manufacturing products. The findings suggest that extreme weather events have severe repercussions on Southeast Asia, where exports play an important role in economic development.

Suggested Citation

  • Kaori Tembata & Kenji Takeuchi, 2018. "Floods and Exports: An Empirical Study on Natural Disaster Shocks in Southeast Asia," Discussion Papers 1817, Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University.
    • Handle: RePEc:koe:wpaper:1817
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    Cited by:

    1. Oliver Schenker & Daniel Osberghaus, 2025. "International Trade and the Transmission of Temperature Shocks," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 88(4), pages 965-1007, April.
    2. Viviana A. Alfonso-Corredor & Enrique Montes-Uribe & María A. Prieto-Sánchez & Héctor M. Zárate-Solano, 2019. "Determinantes y evolución de los precios y cantidades de las principales exportaciones agrícolas de Colombia diferentes al café," Borradores de Economia 1100, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    3. Madhushika Perera & Shyama Ratnasiri, 2025. "Natural disasters, government effectiveness and agribusiness export competitiveness: Evidence from Developing Asia," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 121(8), pages 9311-9337, May.
    4. Pallavi Tomar & Suraj Kumar Singh & Shruti Kanga & Gowhar Meraj & Nikola Kranjčić & Bojan Đurin & Amitanshu Pattanaik, 2021. "GIS-Based Urban Flood Risk Assessment and Management—A Case Study of Delhi National Capital Territory (NCT), India," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(22), pages 1-20, November.
    5. Khan, Khalid, 2025. "How do supply chain and geopolitical risks threaten energy security? A time and frequency analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 316(C).
    6. Ruohan Wu, 2023. "Natural disasters, climate change, and structural transformation: A new perspective from international trade," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(5), pages 1333-1377, May.
    7. Osberghaus, Daniel, 2019. "The Effects of Natural Disasters and Weather Variations on International Trade and Financial Flows: a Review of the Empirical Literature," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 3, pages 305-325.
    8. Sandi, Eleni, 2021. "Estimating the Impact of Natural Disasters on Caribbean Exports," Warwick-Monash Economics Student Papers 03, Warwick Monash Economics Student Papers.
    9. Saini, Swati & Parida, Yashobanta, 2025. "Do natural disasters translate into trade disasters?," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth

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