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Exchange Rates, Foreign Income and U.S. Agriculture


  • Roe, Terry L.
  • Shane, Mathew
  • Somwaru, Agapi


This paper focuses on estimating the effects of trade partner income and real trade-weighted exchange rates on US agricultural exports. For the period 1970-2003, a one percent annual increase in trade partners’ income is found to increase total agricultural exports by about 1.6 percent while a one percent appreciation of the dollar relative to trade partner trade-weighted currencies decreases total agricultural exports by about 0.8 percent. We find these effects also carry over to 12 commodity subcategories, although the effects are conditioned by differences between bulk and high value commodities, and differences in the export demand from high compared to low income countries. We also find that the negative effect of exchange rate appreciation on exports often dominates the positive effect from income growth.
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Suggested Citation

  • Roe, Terry L. & Shane, Mathew & Somwaru, Agapi, 2006. "Exchange Rates, Foreign Income and U.S. Agriculture," Bulletins 12975, University of Minnesota, Economic Development Center.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:umedbu:12975

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Xinshen Diao & Terry Roe & Agapi Somwaru, 2001. "What is the Cause of Growth in Regional Trade: Trade Liberalisation or RTAs? The Case of Agriculture," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(1), pages 51-79, January.
    2. repec:ags:joaaec:v:36:y:2004:i:1:p:1-22 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Orden, David, 1986. "Agriculture, trade, and macroeconomics: The U.S. case," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 27-51.
    4. David A. Bessler, 1984. "Relative Prices and Money: A Vector Autoregression on Brazilian Data," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 66(1), pages 25-30.
    5. Dale W. Jorgenson, 2001. "Information Technology and the U.S. Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(1), pages 1-32, March.
    6. Obstfeld, Maurice, 2002. "Exchange Rates and Adjustment: Perspectives from the New Open- Economy Macroeconomics," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 20(S1), pages 23-46, December.
    7. Babula, Ronald A. & Bessler, David A. & Payne, Warren S., 2004. "Dynamic Relationships Among U.S. Wheat-Related Markets: Applying Directed Acyclic Graphs to a Time Series Model," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 36(01), April.
    8. Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G., 1993. "Estimation and Inference in Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195060119, June.
    9. V. V Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 2002. "Can Sticky Price Models Generate Volatile and Persistent Real Exchange Rates?," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 69(3), pages 533-563.
    10. Gordon C. Rausser & James A. Chalfant & H. Alan Love & Kostas G. Stamoulis, 1986. "Macroeconomic Linkages, Taxes, and Subsidies in the U.S. Agricultural Sector," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 68(2), pages 399-412.
    11. Keblowski, Piotr & Welfe, Aleksander, 2004. "The ADF-KPSS test of the joint confirmation hypothesis of unit autoregressive root," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 85(2), pages 257-263, November.
    12. Rose, Andrew K., 1990. "Exchange rates and the trade balance : Some evidence from developing countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 271-275, November.
    13. Ostry, Jonathan D. & Rose, Andrew K., 1992. "An empirical evaluation of the macroeconomic effects of tarrifs," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 63-79, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mabeta, Joshua, 2015. "Determinants of Non-Traditional Agricultural Exports Growth in Zambia: A Case of Cotton and Tobacco," Research Theses 243450, Collaborative Masters Program in Agricultural and Applied Economics.
    2. Durmaz, Nazif & Thompson, Henry, 2010. "Textile Producer Cotton Imports and the Exchange Rate," MPRA Paper 21831, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Gehlhar, Mark J. & Dohlman, Erik & Brooks, Nora L. & Jerardo, Alberto & Vollrath, Thomas L., 2007. "Global Growth, Macroeconomic Change, and U.S. Agricultural Trade," Economic Research Report 55963, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    4. Nazif Durmaz, 2014. "Inventories of Asian Textile Producers, US Cotton Exports, and the Exchange Rate," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 61(4), pages 397-413, September.

    More about this item


    Exchange rates; U.S. agricultural trade; U.S. agricultural commodity exports; U.S. agricultural export prices; foreign income; International Relations/Trade; F10; F14; Q17;

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • Q17 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agriculture in International Trade


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