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Exchange Rates, Foreign Income and U.S. Agriculture

  • Roe, Terry L.
  • Shane, Mathew
  • Somwaru, Agapi

This paper focuses on estimating the effects of trade partner income and real trade-weighted exchange rates on US agricultural exports. For the period 1970-2003, a one percent annual increase in trade partners’ income is found to increase total agricultural exports by about 1.6 percent while a one percent appreciation of the dollar relative to trade partner trade-weighted currencies decreases total agricultural exports by about 0.8 percent. We find these effects also carry over to 12 commodity subcategories, although the effects are conditioned by differences between bulk and high value commodities, and differences in the export demand from high compared to low income countries. We also find that the negative effect of exchange rate appreciation on exports often dominates the positive effect from income growth.

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Paper provided by University of Minnesota, Economic Development Center in its series Bulletins with number 12975.

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Date of creation: 2006
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Handle: RePEc:ags:umedbu:12975
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  1. Obstfeld, Maurice, 2002. "Exchange Rates and Adjustment: Perspectives from the New Open Economy Macroeconomics," CEPR Discussion Papers 3533, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Rausser, Gordon C. & James, Chalfant A. & Love, H. Alan & Stamoulis, Kostas G., 1986. "Macroeconomic linkages, taxes, and subsidies in the U.S. agricultural sector," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series qt1nj635tk, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley.
  3. Diao, Xinshen & Roe, Terry L. & Somwaru, Agapi, 1999. "What Is The Cause Of Growth In Regional Trade: Trade Liberalization Or Rta'S? The Case Of Agriculture," Working Papers 14605, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
  4. Ostry, Jonathan D. & Rose, Andrew K., 1992. "An empirical evaluation of the macroeconomic effects of tarrifs," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 63-79, February.
  5. V.V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 2000. "Can Sticky Price Models Generate Volatile and Persistent Real Exchange Rates?," NBER Working Papers 7869, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Orden, David, 1986. "Agriculture, trade, and macroeconomics: The U.S. case," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 27-51.
  7. Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G., 1993. "Estimation and Inference in Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195060119, December.
  8. Babula, Ronald A. & Bessler, David A. & Payne, Warren S., 2004. "Dynamic Relationships Among U.S. Wheat-Related Markets: Applying Directed Acyclic Graphs to a Time Series Model," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 36(01), pages 1-22, April.
  9. Rose, Andrew K., 1990. "Exchange rates and the trade balance : Some evidence from developing countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 271-275, November.
  10. Keblowski, Piotr & Welfe, Aleksander, 2004. "The ADF-KPSS test of the joint confirmation hypothesis of unit autoregressive root," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 85(2), pages 257-263, November.
  11. Dale W. Jorgenson, 2001. "Information Technology and the U.S. Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(1), pages 1-32, March.
  12. repec:ags:joaaec:v:36:y:2004:i:1:p:1-22 is not listed on IDEAS
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