IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ddj/fseeai/y2014i2p67-74.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

An Empirical Analysis on the Relationship between Fiscal Deficit and Inflation in Nigeria

Author

Listed:
  • Mika’ilu ABUBAKAR

    (Department of Economics, Usmanu Danfodiyo University, Nigeria)

  • Haruna Mohammed ALIERO

    (Department of Economics, Usmanu Danfodiyo University, Nigeria)

  • Ali Danjumah UMARU

    (Department of Economics, Usmanu Danfodiyo University, Nigeria)

Abstract

The implications of fiscal deficits on key macroeconomic variables have led to a large body of literature examining the question of whether economies with large and persistent fiscal deficits have high inflation rate. In line with this argument, this research work examines the long-run relationship between fiscal deficit and inflation in Nigeria using Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to cointegration on a time series data spanning from 1970 to 2011. It further examines the nature and direction of causality between the two variables. The ARDL result reveals that there is insignificant long run relationship between fiscal deficit and inflation. There is also no significant relationship between exchange rate depreciation and inflation. However, there is a positive and significant long-run relationship between interest rate and inflation. On the direction of causality, uni-directional causalities running from fiscal deficit to inflation and also from inflation to interest rates were evident, while no causality between inflation and exchange rates was recorded. The study therefore, concludes that the sustained fiscal deficit maintained over the years is not the cause of inflation. Rather, interest rate is the main cause of inflation, as such policies targeted at inflation control could be best achieved if geared towards reducing interest rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Mika’ilu ABUBAKAR & Haruna Mohammed ALIERO & Ali Danjumah UMARU, 2014. "An Empirical Analysis on the Relationship between Fiscal Deficit and Inflation in Nigeria," Economics and Applied Informatics, "Dunarea de Jos" University of Galati, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, issue 2, pages 67-74.
    • Handle: RePEc:ddj:fseeai:y:2014:i:2:p:67-74
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.eia.feaa.ugal.ro/images/eia/2014_2/AbubakarAlieroUmaru.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    2. Laurence Ball & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1995. "What do budget deficits do?," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 95-119.
    3. Woodford, Michael, 1995. "Price-level determinacy without control of a monetary aggregate," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 1-46, December.
    4. Hemantha K.J. Ekanayake, 2012. "The Link Between Fiscal Deficit and Inflation: Do public sector wages matter?," ASARC Working Papers 2012-14, The Australian National University, Australia South Asia Research Centre.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Elmendorf, Douglas W. & Gregory Mankiw, N., 1999. "Government debt," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 25, pages 1615-1669, Elsevier.
    2. Olusola Joel Oyeleke, 2021. "On the Non-Linear Relationship between Fiscal Deficit and Inflation: The Nigeria Experience," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 27(2), pages 105-117, May.
    3. Aimola, Akingbade U & Odhiambo, Nicholas M, 2021. "Public debt and inflation: Empirical evidence from Ghana," Working Papers 27063, University of South Africa, Department of Economics.
    4. Aimola Akingbade U. & Odhiambo Nicholas M., 2022. "Is the effect of public debt on inflation symmetric or asymmetric? Evidence from the Gambia," Croatian Review of Economic, Business and Social Statistics, Sciendo, vol. 8(1), pages 41-57, June.
    5. Mahmoud Hachem, 2023. "The Interaction between Policy Mix in Lebanon: Applications of the Nonlinear and Linear ARDL Models," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 13(2), pages 27-45, March.
    6. Bilal Raza & Khurram S Mughal, 2022. "Fiscal Determinants of Inflation in Pakistan," SBP Working Paper Series 108, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department.
    7. Esat Durguti & Nexhat Kryeziu & Emine Gashi, 2020. "How Does the Budget Deficit Affect Inflation Rate-Evidence from Western Balkans," International Journal of Finance & Banking Studies, Center for the Strategic Studies in Business and Finance, vol. 9(1), pages 01-10, January.
    8. Gulzar Ali & Said Zamin Shah & Ghulam Mustafa, 2019. "Testing the Reliability and Existence of IS-LM Model for Pakistan," Global Economics Review, Humanity Only, vol. 4(2), pages 13-23, June.
    9. Luqman SAFDAR, 2014. "The relationship between twin deficit and stock market: An ARDL approach from Pakistan," EuroEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 1(33), pages 109-121, May.
    10. Clement Olalekan Olaniyi, 2020. "Application of Bootstrap Simulation and Asymmetric Causal Approach to Fiscal Deficit-Inflation Nexus," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 12(2), pages 123-140, May.
    11. Kaan Masatci & Asuman Oktayer, 2022. "The Power of Linear Methods in Determining the Dominant Fiscal Regime: A Research on Turkiye," Journal of Economy Culture and Society, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 65(65), pages 375-394, June.
    12. Brittle, Shane, 2009. "Ricardian Equivalence and the Efficacy of Fiscal Policy in Australia," Economics Working Papers wp09-10, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
    13. Ismail O. Fasanya & Ayinke Fajobi & Abiodun Adetokunbo, 2021. "Are Fiscal Deficits Inflationary In Nigeria? New Evidence From Bounds Testing To Cointegration With Structural Breaks," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 66(228), pages 123-148, January –.
    14. László Kónya & Bekzod Abdullaev, 2015. "Does Ricardian equivalence hold in Australia? A revision based on testing super exogeneity with impulse-indicator saturation," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(2), pages 423-448, September.
    15. Karasoy, Alper, 2022. "Is innovative technology a solution to Japan's long-run energy insecurity? Dynamic evidence from the linear and nonlinear methods," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    16. Bloch, Harry & Rafiq, Shuddhasattwa & Salim, Ruhul, 2015. "Economic growth with coal, oil and renewable energy consumption in China: Prospects for fuel substitution," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 104-115.
    17. Villanthenkodath, Muhammed Ashiq & Mahalik, Mantu Kumar, 2021. "Does economic growth respond to electricity consumption asymmetrically in Bangladesh? The implication for environmental sustainability," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 233(C).
    18. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Hoang, Thi Hong Van & Mahalik, Mantu Kumar & Roubaud, David, 2017. "Energy consumption, financial development and economic growth in India: New evidence from a nonlinear and asymmetric analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 199-212.
    19. Nasreen, Samia & Anwar, Sofia & Ozturk, Ilhan, 2017. "Financial stability, energy consumption and environmental quality: Evidence from South Asian economies," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 1105-1122.
    20. Muhammad Shafiullah & Ravinthirakumaran Navaratnam, 2016. "Do Bangladesh and Sri Lanka Enjoy Export-Led Growth? A Comparison of Two Small South Asian Economies," South Asia Economic Journal, Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka, vol. 17(1), pages 114-132, March.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ddj:fseeai:y:2014:i:2:p:67-74. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Gianina Mihai (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/fegalro.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.