What do Budget Deficits Do?
This paper discusses the effects of budget deficits on the economy in four steps. First, it reviews standard theory about how budget deficits influence saving, investment, the trade balance, interest rates, exchange rates, and long-term growth. Second, it offers a rough estimate of the magnitude of some of the effects. Third, it discusses how budget deficits affect economic welfare. Finally, it considers the possibility that continuing budget deficits in a country could lead to a 'hard landing' in which the demand for the country's assets suddenly collapses.
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|Date of creation:||1995|
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- Laurence Ball & Douglas W. Elmendorf & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1995.
"The Deficit Gamble,"
Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers
1710, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
- J. Bradford De Long & Lawrence H. Summers, .
"Equipment Investment and Economic Growth,"
J. Bradford De Long's Working Papers
_122, University of California at Berkeley, Economics Department.
- Feldstein, Martin & Horioka, Charles, 1980.
"Domestic Saving and International Capital Flows,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 90(358), pages 314-29, June.
- Martin Feldstein, 1992. "The Budget and Trade Deficits Aren't Really Twins," NBER Working Papers 3966, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- B. Douglas Bernheim, 1987.
"Ricardian Equivalence: An Evaluation of Theory and Evidence,"
NBER Working Papers
2330, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- B. Douglas Bernheim, 1987. "Ricardian Equivalence: An Evaluation of Theory and Evidence," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1987, Volume 2, pages 263-316 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Paul M. Romer, 1987. "Crazy Explanations for the Productivity Slowdown," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1987, Volume 2, pages 163-210 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Gramlich, Edward M, 1989. "Budget Deficits and National Saving: Are Politicians Exogenous?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 23-35, Spring.
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