Inflation in Pakistan
This paper examines the factors that explain and help forecast inflation in Pakistan. A simple inflation model is specified that includes standard monetary variables (money supply, credit to the private sector), an activity variable, the interest and the exchange rates, as well as the wheat support price as a supply-side factor. The model is estimated for the period January 1998 to June 2005 on a monthly basis. The results indicate that monetary factors have played a dominant role in recent inflation, affecting inflation with a lag of about one year. Private sector credit growth and broad money growth are also good leading indicators of inflation which can be used to forecast future inflation developments.
Volume (Year): 45 (2006)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://www.pide.org.pk
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- James G. MacKinnon, 1995.
"Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests,"
918, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
- MacKinnon, James G, 1996. "Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 601-18, Nov.-Dec..
- Madhavi Bokil & Axel Schimmelpfennig, 2006.
"Three Attempts at Inflation Forecasting in Pakistan,"
The Pakistan Development Review,
Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 45(3), pages 341-368.
- International Monetary Fund, 2005. "Three Attempts At Inflation Forecasting in Pakistan," IMF Working Papers 05/105, International Monetary Fund.
- Pesaran, H. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998.
"Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models,"
Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-29, January.
- Pesaran, M. H. & Shin, Y., 1997. "Generalised Impulse Response Analysis in Linear Multivariate Models," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9710, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Zulfiqar Hyder & Sardar Shah, 2005.
"Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Domestic Prices in Pakistan,"
- Zulfiqar Hyder & Sardar Shah, 2005. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Domestic Prices in Pakistan," Macroeconomics 0510021, EconWPA.
- Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1989.
"New Indexes of Coincident and Leading Economic Indicators,"
in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, Volume 4, pages 351-409
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Stock, J.H. & Watson, M.W., 1989. "New Indexes Of Coincident And Leading Economic Indicators," Papers 178d, Harvard - J.F. Kennedy School of Government.
- James G. MacKinnon & Alfred A. Haug & Leo Michelis, 1996.
"Numerical Distribution Functions of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegration,"
1996_07, York University, Department of Economics.
- MacKinnon, James G & Haug, Alfred A & Michelis, Leo, 1999. "Numerical Distribution Functions of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegration," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(5), pages 563-77, Sept.-Oct.
- Mackinnon, J.G. & Haug, A.A. & Michelis, L., 1996. "Numerical Distribution Functions of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegration," G.R.E.Q.A.M. 96a09, Universite Aix-Marseille III.
- Massimiliano Marcellino, 2005.
"Leading Indicators: What Have We Learned?,"
286, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
- Khan, Mohsin S. & Senhadji, Abdelhak S. & Smith, Bruce D., 2006.
"Inflation And Financial Depth,"
Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(02), pages 165-182, April.
- David Hendry & Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2004.
"We Ran One Regression,"
Economics Series Working Papers
2004-W17, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- By Mohsin S. Khan & Abdelhak S. Senhadji, 2001.
"Threshold Effects in the Relationship Between Inflation and Growth,"
IMF Staff Papers,
Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 48(1), pages 1.
- A. Senhadji Semlali & Mohsin S. Khan, 2000. "Threshold Effects in the Relationship Between Inflation and Growth," IMF Working Papers 00/110, International Monetary Fund.
- Ben S. Bernanke, 2005. "Inflation in Latin America: a new era?," Speech 88, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- repec:fip:fedgsq:y:2005:i:feb11 is not listed on IDEAS
- Paul De Grauwe & Magdalena Polan, 2005. "Is Inflation Always and Everywhere a Monetary Phenomenon?," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 107(2), pages 239-259, 06.
- Nathan S. Balke & Kenneth M. Emery, 1994. "Understanding the price puzzle," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q IV, pages 15-26.
- Ashfaque H. Khan & Mohammad Ali Qasim, 1996. "Inflation in Pakistan Revisited," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 35(4), pages 747-759.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:45:y:2006:i:2:p:185-202. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Khurram Iqbal)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.