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Monetary Targeting in Pakistan: A Skeptical Note

  • Saqib, Omar F
  • Omer, Muhamad

The objective of this study is to evaluate monetary targeting strategy in Pakistan by testing the Quantity Theory of Money and the income velocity of money stated by Monetarists and the endogenous money hypothesis postulated by the Post Keynesians. Our tests on the Pakistani data covering about thirty years reveal that the quantity theory is an inadequate explanation of inflation, income velocity of money is unstable, and money is endogenous. These results suggest rethinking on monetary targeting strategy in Pakistan.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 14883.

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Date of creation: 05 Jun 2008
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:14883
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  1. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
  2. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  3. International Monetary Fund, 2005. "Three Attempts At Inflation Forecasting in Pakistan," IMF Working Papers 05/105, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
  5. Jonung, Lars, 1978. " The Long-run Demand for Money-A Wicksellian Approach," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 80(2), pages 216-30.
  6. Bordo, Michael D. & Jonung, Lars, 1990. "The long-run behavior of velocity: The institutional approach revisited," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 165-197.
  7. Qayyum, Abdul, 2006. "Money, Inflation, and Growth in Pakistan," MPRA Paper 2055, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2006.
  8. Thomas I. Palley, 1996. "Accommodationism versus Structuralism: Time for an Accommodation," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 18(4), pages 585-594, July.
  9. M. Ali Kemal, 2006. "Is Inflation in Pakistan a Monetary Phenomenon?," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 45(2), pages 213-220.
  10. Granger, C. W. J., 1988. "Some recent development in a concept of causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1-2), pages 199-211.
  11. Paul De Grauwe & Magdalena Polan, 2005. "Is Inflation Always and Everywhere a Monetary Phenomenon?," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 107(2), pages 239-259, 06.
  12. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1996. "Nobel Lecture: Monetary Neutrality," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(4), pages 661-82, August.
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