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Money, Income and Prices in Pakistan: A Bi-variat and Tri-varate Causility

Author

Listed:
  • Abbas, Kalbe
  • Fazal, Husain

Abstract

This paper re-examines the causal relationship between money and income and between money and prices in Pakistan. Using an annual data set for Fiscal Years 1959/60 to 2003/04 and employing Co-integration and Error Correction Models as well as the standard Granger Causality analysis we investigate the Bi-variate and Tri-variate causal relationships. The Co-integration analysis indicates, in general, the long run relationship among money, income, and prices. The Error Correction and Granger Causality framework suggest a one way causation from income to money in the long run implying that probably real factors rather than money supply has played a major role in increasing Pakistan’s national income. Regarding the causal relationship between money and prices, the causality framework provides the evidence of bi-variate causality indicating that monetary expansion increases, and is also increased by inflation in Pakistan. However, Money supply seems to be the leader in this case.

Suggested Citation

  • Abbas, Kalbe & Fazal, Husain, 2006. "Money, Income and Prices in Pakistan: A Bi-variat and Tri-varate Causility," MPRA Paper 4892, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:4892
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/4892/1/MPRA_paper_4892.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Schwert, G. William, 1987. "Effects of model specification on tests for unit roots in macroeconomic data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 73-103, July.
    2. Sims, Christopher A, 1972. "Money, Income, and Causality," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(4), pages 540-552, September.
    3. James R. Barth & James T. Bennett, 1974. "The Role of Money in the Canadian Economy: An Empirical Test," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 7(2), pages 306-311, May.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Muhammad Omer & Omar Farooq Saqib, 2009. "Monetary Targeting in Pakistan: A Skeptical Note," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 5, pages 53-81.
    2. Khan, Safdar Ullah & Saqib, Omar Farooq, 2011. "Political instability and inflation in Pakistan," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(6), pages 540-549.
    3. Omer, Muhammad, 2009. "Stability of money demand function in Pakistan," MPRA Paper 35306, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Money; Income; Prices; Causality;

    JEL classification:

    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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