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Money, Income, Prices, and Causality in Pakistan. A Trivariate Analysis


  • Fazal Husain

    (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics (PIDE) Islamabad.)

  • Kalbe Abbas

    (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics (PIDE) Islamabad.)


This paper re-examines the causal relationship between money and income and between money and prices in Pakistan using a longer annual data set from 1949–50 to 1998–99 and employing Granger causality and Error Correction Models. We also investigate the causal relationships through trivariate approach. The analyses indicate the long run relationship among money, income, and prices. The analyses further suggest a one way causation from income to money implying that probably real factors rather than money supply has played a major role in increasing Pakistan’s national income. Regarding the causal relationship between money and prices, the analyses suggest a both way causation between them. This implies that monetary expansion increases, and is also increased by, inflation in Pakistan.

Suggested Citation

  • Fazal Husain & Kalbe Abbas, 2000. "Money, Income, Prices, and Causality in Pakistan. A Trivariate Analysis," PIDE-Working Papers 2000:178, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:pid:wpaper:2000:178

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Kalbe Abbas, 1991. "Causality Test between Money and Income: A Case Study of Selected Developing Asian Countries (1960-1988)," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 30(4), pages 919-929.
    2. Schwert, G. William, 1987. "Effects of model specification on tests for unit roots in macroeconomic data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 73-103, July.
    3. Sims, Christopher A, 1972. "Money, Income, and Causality," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(4), pages 540-552, September.
    4. James R. Barth & James T. Bennett, 1974. "The Role of Money in the Canadian Economy: An Empirical Test," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 7(2), pages 306-311, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. João Tovar Jalles, 2019. "Monetary Aggregates and Macroeconomic Performance: the Portuguese Escudo, 1911-1999," Working Papers REM 2019/0102, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    2. Hussain, Karrar, 2009. "Causal Ordering Between Inflation and Productivity of Labor and Capital: An Empirical Approach for Pakistan," MPRA Paper 16486, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Naved Ahmad & Fareed Ahmed, 2006. "The Long-run and Short-run Endogeneity of Money Supply in Pakistan: An Empirical Investigation," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 2, pages 267-278..
    4. repec:dug:journl:y:2017:i:2:p:123-134 is not listed on IDEAS

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