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The long-run behavior of velocity: The institutional approach revisited

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  • Bordo, Michael D.
  • Jonung, Lars

Abstract

In this paper we provide evidence using annual data for the period 1880 to 1986 that institutional variables are significant determinants of velocity in the United States, United Kingdom, Canada, Sweden and Norway. This evidence supplements our earlier findings (Bordo and Jonung, Cambridge University Press, 1987) for annual data ending in the early 1970's. We present eVidence that several proxies for institutional change in the financial sector are significant determinants of the long-run velocity function; that for the majority of countries the long-run velocity function incorporating institutional determinants has not undergone significant change over the last 10 to 15 years; and that out of sample forecasts over the last 10 to 15 years based on our institutional hypothesis are superior to those based on a benchmark long-run velocity function for a number of countries. these results suggests that failure to account for institutional change in the financial sector such as may be captured by our proxy variables may well be one factor behind the recently documented instability and decline in predictive power of short-run velocity models incorporating dynamic adjustment and higher frequency data.
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  • Bordo, Michael D. & Jonung, Lars, 1990. "The long-run behavior of velocity: The institutional approach revisited," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 165-197.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:12:y:1990:i:2:p:165-197
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    Cited by:

    1. Lisbeth Funding la Cour, 1995. "A Component® based Analysis of the danish Long-run Money Demand Relation," Discussion Papers 95-18, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    2. Peter N. Ireland, 1991. "Financial evolution and the long-run behavior of velocity : new evidence from U.S. regional data," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Nov, pages 16-26.
    3. Muhammad Omer & Omar Farooq Saqib, 2009. "Monetary Targeting in Pakistan: A Skeptical Note," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 5, pages 53-81.
    4. William A. Barnett & Yi Liu & Haiyang Xu & Mark Jensen, 1996. "The CAPM Risk Adjustment Needed for Exact Aggregation over Financial Assets," Econometrics 9602003, EconWPA.
    5. Anderson, Richard G. & Bordo, Michael & Duca, John V., 2017. "Money and velocity during financial crises: From the great depression to the great recession," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 32-49.
    6. Abdul Qayyum, 2006. "Money, Inflation, and Growth in Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 45(2), pages 203-212.
    7. Michael D. Bordo & Lars Jonung & Pierre Siklos, 1993. "The Common Development of Institutional Change as Measured by Income Velocity: A Century of Evidence from Industrialized Countries," NBER Working Papers 4379, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Sophocles N. Brissimis & George Hondroyiannis & P. A. V. B. Swamy & George S. Tavlas, 2003. "Empirical Modelling of Money Demand in Periods of Structural Change: The Case of Greece," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 65(5), pages 605-628, December.
    9. Arrau, Patricio & De Gregorio, Jose & Reinhart, Carmen M. & Wickham, Peter, 1995. "The demand for money in developing countries: Assessing the role of financial innovation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 317-340, April.
    10. Hondroyiannis, George & Swamy, P. A. V. B. & Tavlas, George S., 2001. "Modelling the long-run demand for money in the United Kingdom: a random coefficient analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 475-501, August.
    11. Omer, Muhammad, 2009. "Stability of money demand function in Pakistan," MPRA Paper 35306, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. A.E.Akinlo, 2012. "Financial Development and the Velocity of Money in Nigeria: An Empirical Analysis," The Review of Finance and Banking, Academia de Studii Economice din Bucuresti, Romania / Facultatea de Finante, Asigurari, Banci si Burse de Valori / Catedra de Finante, vol. 4(2), pages 097-113, December.
    13. Serpil Canbas & Murat Doganlar & Yildirim B.Onal, 2002. "Measurement of Foreign Exchange Exposure on the Turkish Private Banks’ Stock Prices," Istanbul Stock Exchange Review, Research and Business Development Department, Borsa Istanbul, vol. 6(22), pages 17-32.
    14. Gordon, David B. & Leeper, Eric M. & Zha, Tao, 1998. "Trends in velocity and policy expectations," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 265-304, December.
    15. Fatih Cin & Fikret Dulger, 2002. "Income Velocity of Money (M2): The Case of Turkey, 1986-2000," Istanbul Stock Exchange Review, Research and Business Development Department, Borsa Istanbul, vol. 6(22), pages 33-48.
    16. repec:dgr:rugsom:12011-eef is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Michael Bordo & Anna J. Schwartz, 2006. "David Laidler on Monetarism," NBER Working Papers 12593, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Arnold, Ivo J. M., 1996. "Stochastic trends in the long-run behavior of velocity: A new test of the institutional hypothesis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 18(6), pages 623-641, December.
    19. Jha, Sailesh K. & Wang, Ping & Yip, Chong K., 2002. "Dynamics in a transactions-based monetary growth model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 611-635, April.
    20. James Vladimir Torres Moreno, 2013. "Precios, oferta monetaria y crecimiento económico en la nueva granada de la segunda mitad del siglo XVIII," Revista de Economía Institucional, Universidad Externado de Colombia - Facultad de Economía, vol. 15(29), pages 195-225, July-Dece.
    21. Nelson, Edward, 2003. "The future of monetary aggregates in monetary policy analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 1029-1059, July.
    22. Armando Rodríguez Zerpa, José U. Mora Mora, 2013. "La demanda de dinero y las innovaciones financieras en Venezuela: equilibrio de largo plazo," REVISTA CIFE, UNIVERSIDAD SANTO TOMÁS, June.
    23. James, Gregory A., 2005. "Money demand and financial liberalization in Indonesia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 817-829, October.
    24. James Boughton, 1992. "International comparisons of money demand," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 3(3), pages 323-343, October.
    25. Tulay Yucel & Gulizar Kurt, 2002. "Cash Conversion Cycle, Cash Management and Profitability: An Empirical Study on the ISE Traded Companies," Istanbul Stock Exchange Review, Research and Business Development Department, Borsa Istanbul, vol. 6(22), pages 1-16.

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