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Earning a Peace Dividend in a Crisis Environment: The Greek Case

Author

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  • Bragoudakis Zacharias G.

    (Economic Research Department, Bank of Greece, Athens, Greece)

  • Zombanakis George A.

    (Department of Economics, The American College of Greece, Athens, Greece)

Abstract

In this paper we attempt to assess the extent to which conversion policies involving the shift of resources from the defence to the non-defence sector may entail some form of peace dividend for the economy of Greece. The issue has become one of increasing importance during the past few years during which the demand for growth-supporting policies has been a top priority requirement as an antidote to the recession. The paper employs a VAR model in order to investigate the interactions among the growth rate of gross domestic product and alternative measures of defence expenditure. We find that defence spending and more so, expenditure on defence equipment, under the present circumstances in which the bulk of the procurement represents import payments is not related in any form of Granger-causal relationship with the economic growth of Greece. Our results point to the fact that there can be no possibility of a peace dividend under the circumstances prevailing, unless defence procurement policies shift to an import – substitution strategy.

Suggested Citation

  • Bragoudakis Zacharias G. & Zombanakis George A., 2017. "Earning a Peace Dividend in a Crisis Environment: The Greek Case," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 23(3), pages 1-15, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:pepspp:v:23:y:2017:i:3:p:15:n:1
    DOI: 10.1515/peps-2016-0040
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Malcolm Knight & Norman Loayza & Delano Villanueva, 1996. "The Peace Dividend: Military Spending Cuts and Economic Growth," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 43(1), pages 1-37, March.
    2. Sims, Christopher A, 1972. "Money, Income, and Causality," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(4), pages 540-552, September.
    3. Raul Caruso & Addesa Francesco, 2012. "Country Survey: Military Expenditure And Its Impact On Productivity In Italy, 1988--2008," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(5), pages 471-484, October.
    4. Bergstrand, Jeffrey H, 1992. "Real Exchange Rates, National Price Levels, and the Peace Dividend," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(2), pages 55-61, May.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    growth; IRF’s variance decomposition; military expenditure; peace dividend; VAR;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F45 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Macroeconomic Issues of Monetary Unions
    • H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War
    • H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General

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