Fiscal deficits, monetary reform, and inflation stabilization in Romania
Unsustainable fiscal deficits were the chief reason for the inflation that has persisted in Eastern Europe since 1989. Deficits need to be cut back, but by how much for a given inflation target? The authors develop a simple framework for debt, the deficit, and inflation to study the interactions between fiscal and monetary policy in Romania's economy. This framework can be used to 1) determine the financeable deficit and the required deficit reduction for a given rate of output growth, inflation rate, and target for debt-output ratios, and 2) find the rate, and target for which nofiscal adjustment is needed. They use this framework to assess consistency between inflation, monetary reform, and fiscal policy in Romania. Many of the issues in Romania are similar to those in other countries. But Romania is an interesting case because of its history of unsuccessful stabilization attempts. The authors'results suggest that fiscal problems during 1992-94 were masked by shifting government expenses to the books of the National Bank of Romania so that the government deficit did not fully reflect public spending. In addition, the effects of delayed fiscal adjustment were mitigated by exchange rate overvaluation and favorable debt dynamics. In the late 1990s, however, debt dynamics worsened and the economy experienced significant real depreciation. That exacerbated the fiscal problems and increased the fiscal adjustment needed to restore consistency.
|Date of creation:||31 Mar 2000|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: (202) 477-1234
Web page: http://www.worldbank.org/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- W.H. Buiter, 1997.
"Aspects of Fiscal Performance in Some Transition Economies Under Fund-Supported Programs,"
CEP Discussion Papers
dp0333, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- Willem H. Buiter, 1997. "Aspects of Fiscal Performance in Some Transition Economies Under Fund-Supported Programs," IMF Working Papers 97/31, International Monetary Fund.
- Buiter, Willem H., 1996. "Aspects of Fiscal Performance in some Transition Economies under Fund-supported Programs," CEPR Discussion Papers 1535, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Willem H. Buiter, 1997. "Aspects of fiscal performance in some transition economies under fund-supported programs," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 20353, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Alogoskoufis, George & Christodoulakis, Nikos, 1990. "Fiscal Deficits, Seigniorage and External Debt: The Case of Greece," CEPR Discussion Papers 468, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Drazen, Allan & Helpman, Elhanan, 1990.
"Inflationary Consequences of Anticipated Macroeconomic Policies,"
Review of Economic Studies,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(1), pages 147-64, January.
- Allan Drazen & Elhanan Helpman, 1986. "Inflationary Consequences of Anticipated Macroeconomic Policies," NBER Working Papers 2006, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- van Wijnbergen, Sweder, 1991.
"Fiscal Deficits, Exchange Rate Crises and Inflation,"
Review of Economic Studies,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(1), pages 81-92, January.
- Sweder van Wijnbergen, 1987. "Fiscal Deficits, Exchange Rate Crises and Inflation," NBER Working Papers 2130, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- van Wijnbergen, Sweder, 1985. "Fiscal Deficits, Exchange Rate Crises and Inflation," CEPR Discussion Papers 87, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Buiter, Willem H., 1993.
"Public Debt in the USA: How Much, How Bad and Who Pays?,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
791, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Willem H. Buiter, 1993. "Public Debt in the USA: How Much, How Bad and Who Pays?," NBER Working Papers 4362, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Thomas J. Sargent & Neil Wallace, 1981. "Some unpleasant monetarist arithmetic," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Fall.
- Budina, Nina & van Wijnbergen, Sweder, 1997. "Fiscal Policies in Eastern Europe," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 13(2), pages 47-64, Summer.
- Anand, Ritu & van Wijnbergen, Sweder, 1989. "Inflation and the Financing of Government Expenditure: An Introductory Analysis with an Application to Turkey," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 3(1), pages 17-38, January.
- Kawai, Masahiro & Maccini, Louis J, 1995. "Twin Deficits versus Unpleasant Fiscal Arithmetic in a Small Open Economy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(3), pages 639-58, August.
- Ritu Anand & Sweder van Wijnbergen, 1988. "Inflation, External Debt and Financial Sector Reform: A Quantitative Approach To Consistent Fiscal Policy With An Application to Turkey," NBER Working Papers 2731, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Peter Boswijk, H., 1994. "Testing for an unstable root in conditional and structural error correction models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 37-60, July.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:2298. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Roula I. Yazigi)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.