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Dollar Shortages and Crises

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  • Raghuram G. Rajan

Abstract

Emerging markets do not handle adverse shocks well. In this paper, we lay out an argument about why emerging markets are so fragile, and why they may adopt contractual mechanisms -such as a dollarized banking system- that increase their fragility. We draw on this analysis to explain why dollarized economies may be prone to dollar shortages and twin crises. The model of crises described here differs in some important aspects from what is now termed the first, second, and third generation models of crises. We then examine how domestic policies, especially monetary policy, can mitigate the adverse effects of these crises. Finally, we consider the role, potentially constructive, that international financial institutions may undertake both in helping to prevent the crises and in helping to resolve them.

Suggested Citation

  • Raghuram G. Rajan, 2004. "Dollar Shortages and Crises," NBER Working Papers 10845, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:10845
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    Cited by:

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    2. Marina Tkalec, 2013. "The Dynamics of Deposit Euroization in European Post-Transition Countries: Evidence from Threshold VAR," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 66-83.
    3. Mr. Ashoka Mody & Mr. Se-Jik Kim, 2004. "Managing Confidence in Emerging Market Bank Runs," IMF Working Papers 2004/235, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Levy Yeyati, Eduardo & Sturzenegger, Federico & Reggio, Iliana, 2010. "On the endogeneity of exchange rate regimes," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(5), pages 659-677, July.
    5. Maurice Obstfeld, 2010. "Expanding gross asset positions and the international monetary system," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 463-478.
    6. Bruce N. Lehmann & David M. Modest, 1985. "The Empirical Foundations of the Arbitrage Pricing Theory I: The Empirical Tests," NBER Working Papers 1725, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Vieira, Fabrício A.C. & Holland, Márcio & Resende, Marco F., 2012. "Financial dollarization and systemic risks: New empirical evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1695-1714.
    8. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Maurice Obstfeld, 2012. "Stories of the Twentieth Century for the Twenty-First," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 226-265, January.
    9. Eswar S. Prasad & Raghuram G. Rajan, 2008. "A Pragmatic Approach to Capital Account Liberalization," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 22(3), pages 149-172, Summer.
    10. Lorena Keller, 2018. "Prudential Capital Controls and Risk Misallocation: Bank Lending Channel," 2018 Meeting Papers 129, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    11. Eduardo Levy Yeyati, 2008. "Liquidity Insurance in a Financially Dollarized Economy," NBER Chapters, in: Financial Markets Volatility and Performance in Emerging Markets, pages 185-218, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Bank for International Settlements, 2009. "Capital flows and emerging market economies," CGFS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 33.
    13. Douglas W. Diamond & Raghuram G. Rajan, 2006. "Money in a Theory of Banking," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(1), pages 30-53, March.
    14. Steven Ongena & Ibolya Schindele & Dzsamila Vonnak, 2014. "In Lands of Foreign Currency Credit, Bank Lending Channels Run Through? The Effects of Monetary Policy at Home and Abroad on the Currency Denomination of the Supply of Credit," CERS-IE WORKING PAPERS 1424, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies.
    15. Ongena, Steven & Schindele, Ibolya & Vonnák, Dzsamila, 2021. "In lands of foreign currency credit, bank lending channels run through?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    16. Emre Ozsoz & Erick W. Rengifo & Dominick Salvatore, 2008. "Dollarization as an Investment Signal in Developing Countries: The Case of Croatia, Czech Republic, Peru, Slovak Republic and Turkey," Fordham Economics Discussion Paper Series dp2008-16, Fordham University, Department of Economics.
    17. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95, May.
    18. Patrick McGuire & Goetz von Peter, 2012. "The Dollar Shortage in Global Banking and the International Policy Response," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(2), pages 155-178, June.
    19. Stijn Claessens & M. Ayhan Kose, 2017. "Asset prices and macroeconomic outcomes: A survey," CAMA Working Papers 2017-76, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    20. World Bank, 2011. "Republic of Tajikistan - Country Economic Memorandum : Tajikistan’s Quest for Growth: Stimulating Private Investment," World Bank Publications - Reports 2761, The World Bank Group.
    21. Patrick Amir Imam, 2022. "De‐dollarization in Zimbabwe: What lessons can be learned from other sub‐Saharan countries?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 770-801, January.
    22. Bitar, Joseph, 2021. "The unique dollarization case of Lebanon," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 45(2).
    23. Douglas W. Diamond & Yunzhi Hu & Raghuram G. Rajan, 2020. "The Spillovers from Easy Liquidity and the Implications for Multilateralism," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 68(1), pages 4-34, March.
    24. Marcelin, Isaac & Mathur, Ike, 2016. "Financial sector development and dollarization in emerging economies," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 20-32.

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    JEL classification:

    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems

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