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Dollar Shortages and Crises

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  • Raghuram G. Rajan

Abstract

Emerging markets do not handle adverse shocks well. In this paper, I will outline an explanation of why emerging markets are so fragile, and why they may adopt contractual mechanisms -- such as a dollarized banking system -- that increase their fragility. I draw on this analysis to explain why dollarized economies may be prone to dollar shortages and twin crises. The model of crises described here differs in some important aspects from what is now termed the first, second, and third generation models of crises. I then examine how domestic policies, especially monetary policy, can mitigate the adverse effects of these crises. Finally, I will ask if there is a constructive role for international financial institutions both in helping to prevent the crises and in helping resolve them.

Suggested Citation

  • Raghuram G. Rajan, 2004. "Dollar Shortages and Crises," NBER Working Papers 10845, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:10845
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    Cited by:

    1. Maurice Obstfeld, 2013. "On Keeping Your Powder Dry: Fiscal Foundations of Financial and Price Stability," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 31, pages 25-38, November.
    2. Emre Ozsoz & Erick W. Rengifo & Dominick Salvatore, 2008. "Dollarization as an Investment Signal in Developing Countries: The Case of Croatia, Czech Republic, Peru, Slovak Republic and Turkey," Fordham Economics Discussion Paper Series dp2008-16, Fordham University, Department of Economics.
    3. repec:bis:bisbps:95 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Marina Tkalec, 2013. "The Dynamics of Deposit Euroization in European Post-Transition Countries: Evidence from Threshold VAR," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 66-83.
    5. Levy Yeyati, Eduardo & Sturzenegger, Federico & Reggio, Iliana, 2010. "On the endogeneity of exchange rate regimes," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(5), pages 659-677, July.
    6. Maurice Obstfeld, 2010. "Expanding gross asset positions and the international monetary system," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 463-478.
    7. Patrick McGuire & Goetz von Peter, 2009. "The US dollar shortage in global banking and the international policy response," BIS Working Papers 291, Bank for International Settlements.
    8. Ashoka Mody & Se-Jik Kim, 2004. "Managing Confidence in Emerging Market Bank Runs," IMF Working Papers 04/235, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Bruce N. Lehmann & David M. Modest, 1985. "The Empirical Foundations of the Arbitrage Pricing Theory I: The Empirical Tests," NBER Working Papers 1725, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2017. "Asset prices and macroeconomic outcomes: a survey," BIS Working Papers 676, Bank for International Settlements.
    11. World Bank, 2011. "Republic of Tajikistan - Country Economic Memorandum : Tajikistan’s Quest for Growth: Stimulating Private Investment," World Bank Other Operational Studies 2761, The World Bank.
    12. Vieira, Fabrício A.C. & Holland, Márcio & Resende, Marco F., 2012. "Financial dollarization and systemic risks: New empirical evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1695-1714.
    13. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Maurice Obstfeld, 2012. "Stories of the Twentieth Century for the Twenty-First," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 226-265, January.
    14. Douglas W. Diamond & Raghuram G. Rajan, 2006. "Money in a Theory of Banking," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(1), pages 30-53, March.
    15. Eswar S. Prasad & Raghuram G. Rajan, 2008. "A Pragmatic Approach to Capital Account Liberalization," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 22(3), pages 149-172, Summer.
    16. Lorena Keller, 2018. "Prudential Capital Controls and Risk Misallocation: Bank Lending Channel," 2018 Meeting Papers 129, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    17. Eduardo Levy Yeyati, 2008. "Liquidity Insurance in a Financially Dollarized Economy," NBER Chapters,in: Financial Markets Volatility and Performance in Emerging Markets, pages 185-218 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Bank for International Settlements, 2009. "Capital flows and emerging market economies," CGFS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 33, December.
    19. Steven Ongena & Ibolya Schindele & Dzsamila Vonnak, 2014. "In Lands of Foreign Currency Credit, Bank Lending Channels Run Through? The Effects of Monetary Policy at Home and Abroad on the Currency Denomination of the Supply of Credit," IEHAS Discussion Papers 1424, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Hungarian Academy of Sciences.
    20. Steven Ongena & Ibolya Schindele & Dzsamila Vonnák, 2017. "In Lands of Foreign Currency Credit, Bank Lending Channels Run Through?," MNB Working Papers 2017/6, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    21. Marcelin, Isaac & Mathur, Ike, 2016. "Financial sector development and dollarization in emerging economies," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 20-32.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems

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