IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ijc/ijcjou/y2005q2a6.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Exchange Rate Volatility and the Credit Channel in Emerging Markets: A Vertical Perspective

Author

Listed:
  • Ricardo Caballero

    (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)

  • Arvind Krishnamurthy

    (Northwestern University)

Abstract

Firms in emerging markets are exposed to severe financial frictions and credit constraints that are exacerbated by the sudden stop of capital inflows. Can monetary policy offset this external credit squeeze? We show that although this may be the case during moderate contractions (or in partial equilibrium), the expansionary effect of monetary policy vanishes during severe external crises. The exchange rate jumps to reduce the dollar value of domestic collateral until equilibrium in domestic financial markets is consistent with the external constraint. An expansionary monetary policy in this context raises the value of domestic collateral, but it exacerbates the exchange rate depreciation (beyond the standard interest parity effect) and has little effect on aggregate activity. However, there is a dynamic linkage between monetary policy and sudden stops. The anticipation of a dogged defense of the exchange rate worsens the consequences of sudden stops by distorting the private sector incentive to take precautions against these shocks. For similar general equilibrium reasons, dollarization of liabilities has limited impact during a sudden stop, but it has significant underinsurance consequences.

Suggested Citation

  • Ricardo Caballero & Arvind Krishnamurthy, 2005. "Exchange Rate Volatility and the Credit Channel in Emerging Markets: A Vertical Perspective," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 1(1), May.
  • Handle: RePEc:ijc:ijcjou:y:2005:q:2:a:6
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.ijcb.org/journal/ijcb05q2a6.htm
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: http://www.ijcb.org/journal/ijcb05q2a6.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1999. "The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework," Handbook of Macroeconomics,in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 21, pages 1341-1393 Elsevier.
    2. Luis Felipe Céspedes & Roberto Chang & Andrés Velasco, 2004. "Balance Sheets and Exchange Rate Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 1183-1193, September.
    3. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Fear of Floating," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 117(2), pages 379-408.
    4. Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1999. "The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework," Handbook of Macroeconomics,in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 21, pages 1341-1393 Elsevier.
    5. Hausmann, Ricardo & Panizza, Ugo & Stein, Ernesto, 2001. "Why do countries float the way they float?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, pages 387-414.
    6. Edwards, Sebastian & Levy Yeyati, Eduardo, 2005. "Flexible exchange rates as shock absorbers," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(8), pages 2079-2105, November.
    7. Bulow, Jeremy & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1989. "A Constant Recontracting Model of Sovereign Debt," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(1), pages 155-178, February.
    8. Mark Gertler & Simon Gilchrist & Fabio M. Natalucci, 2007. "External Constraints on Monetary Policy and the Financial Accelerator," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(2-3), pages 295-330, March.
    9. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Gust, Christopher & Roldos, Jorge, 2004. "Monetary policy in a financial crisis," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 119(1), pages 64-103, November.
    10. Rudi Dornbusch, 2001. "Fewer Monies, Better Monies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 238-242, May.
    11. Bengt Holmstrom & Jean Tirole, 1998. "Private and Public Supply of Liquidity," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(1), pages 1-40, February.
    12. Fernando A. Broner & Guido Lorenzoni & Sergio L. Schmukler, 2013. "Why Do Emerging Economies Borrow Short Term?," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 11, pages 67-100, January.
    13. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-1176, December.
    14. Hoyt Bleakley & Kevin Cowan, 2008. "Corporate Dollar Debt and Depreciations: Much Ado About Nothing?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(4), pages 612-626, November.
    15. Douglas W. Diamond & Raghuram G. Rajan, 2006. "Money in a Theory of Banking," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(1), pages 30-53, March.
    16. Javier Gómez, 2004. "Inflation Targeting and Sudden Stops," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 002854, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    17. Douglas W. Diamond & Raghuram G. Rajan, 2005. "Liquidity Shortages and Banking Crises," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(2), pages 615-647, April.
    18. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1995. "Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 27-48, Fall.
    19. Caballero, Ricardo J. & Krishnamurthy, Arvind, 2001. "International and domestic collateral constraints in a model of emerging market crises," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 513-548, December.
    20. Woodford, Michael, 1990. "Public Debt as Private Liquidity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 382-388, May.
    21. repec:rus:hseeco:123927 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Jason Furman & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 1998. "Economic Crises: Evidence and Insights from East Asia," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(2), pages 1-136.
    23. Frederic S. Mishkin & Andrew Crockett & Michael P. Dooley & Montek S. Ahluwalia, 2003. "Financial Policies," NBER Chapters,in: Economic and Financial Crises in Emerging Market Economies, pages 93-154 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Katalin Bodnár, 2009. "Exchange rate exposure of Hungarian enterprises – results of a survey," MNB Occasional Papers 2009/80, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    2. Burcu Aydin & Engin Volkan, 2011. "Incorporating Financial Stability in Inflation Targeting Frameworks," IMF Working Papers 11/224, International Monetary Fund.
    3. César A. Corredor V., 2009. "Credit Chanel in developing countries: The case of Colombia," REVISTA DE ECONOMÍA DEL CARIBE 007113, UNIVERSIDAD DEL NORTE.
    4. Fernando Lorenzo & Alfonso Capurro & Guillermo Carlomagno & Paula Garda & Bibiana Lanzilotta & Gonzalo Zunino, 2010. "El canal de crédito, evidencias para Uruguay desde una perspectiva macroeconómica," Documentos de trabajo 2010021, Banco Central del Uruguay.
    5. Bazán, Walter, 2011. "No-linealidades y asimetrías en el crédito peruano," Working Papers 2011-015, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    6. Eduardo Levy Yeyati & Alain Ize, 2005. "Financial De-Dollarization; Is it for Real?," IMF Working Papers 05/187, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Raghuram G. Rajan, 2005. "Has financial development made the world riskier?," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Aug, pages 313-369.
    8. Yossi Yakhin, 2008. "Financial Integration And Cyclicality Of Monetary Policy In Small Open Economies," Working Papers 0811, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Department of Economics.
    9. Ricardo J. Caballero & Alp Simsek, 2016. "A Model of Fickle Capital Flows and Retrenchment," NBER Working Papers 22751, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Andres Velasco & Robert Chang, 2004. "Endogenous dollarization, expectations, and equilibrium monetary policy," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jun.
    11. Raghuram G. Rajan & Ioannis Tokatlidis, 2005. "Dollar Shortages and Crises," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 1(2), September.
    12. Roberto Chang & Andres Velasco, 2004. "Monetary Policy and the Currency Denomination of Debt: A Tale of Two Equilibria," CID Working Papers 106, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
    13. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2007. "Comment on "Monetary Rules in Emerging Economies with Financial Market Imperfections"," NBER Chapters,in: International Dimensions of Monetary Policy, pages 311-317 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Eden, Maya, 2013. "International liquidity rents," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6462, The World Bank.
    15. Abbas Mirakhor & Iqbal Zaidi, 2006. "Foreign Currency Deposits and International Liquidity Shortages in Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, pages 49-85.
    16. Braggion, Fabio & Christiano, Lawrence J. & Roldos, Jorge, 2009. "Optimal monetary policy in a [`]sudden stop'," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 582-595, May.
    17. Duncan, Roberto, 2014. "Institutional quality, the cyclicality of monetary policy and macroeconomic volatility," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 39(PA), pages 113-155.
    18. Akito Matsumoto, 2011. "Global Liquidity; Availability of Funds for Safe and Risky Assets," IMF Working Papers 11/136, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Chang, Roberto & Velasco, Andres, 2006. "Currency mismatches and monetary policy: A tale of two equilibria," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 150-175, June.
    20. International Monetary Fund, 2011. "Republic of Korea; Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 11/247, International Monetary Fund.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E0 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General
    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • F0 - International Economics - - General
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ijc:ijcjou:y:2005:q:2:a:6. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Bank for International Settlements). General contact details of provider: http://www.ijcb.org/ .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.