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Investigating the Cyclical Behavior of Fiscal Policy in the Republic of Macedonia during the Period of Transition

Author

Listed:
  • Anita Angelovska Bezoska

    () (National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia)

  • Jane Bogoev

    (National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia)

  • Ana Mitreska

    () (National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia)

  • Maja Kadievska Vojnovik

    () (National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia)

Abstract

The main aim of this research is to investigate the cyclical behavior of fiscal policy with respect to output gap fluctuations in the Republic of Macedonia during the period 1991-2009. We use two different fiscal policy measures: 1) the cyclically unadjusted primary budget balance and 2) the cyclically adjusted primary budget balance as a proxy indicator of the fiscal policy stance. This analysis also aims to explore whether there was a substantial change in the fiscal policy behavior prior to 1996 due to the turbulent initial period of transition and the switch in monetary policy strategy. We additionally control for other factors that also seem to have had a significant impact over the fiscal policy behavior, such as the armed conflict in 2001 and the impact of public debt as a proxy indicator of budget financing constraints. The estimated results with respect to both measures, the cyclically unadjusted and cyclically adjusted budget balance, indicate differences in the fiscal policy behavior prior to and after 1996. More precisely, the results imply that the fiscal policy behavior prior to 1996 was procyclical, whereas afterwards the fiscal policy became countercyclical. These results are robust to different measures of the output gap and different frequency of the data sets.

Suggested Citation

  • Anita Angelovska Bezoska & Jane Bogoev & Ana Mitreska & Maja Kadievska Vojnovik, 2011. "Investigating the Cyclical Behavior of Fiscal Policy in the Republic of Macedonia during the Period of Transition," Working Papers 2011-01, National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia, revised 2011.
  • Handle: RePEc:mae:wpaper:2011-01
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Christopher F Baum & Mark E. Schaffer & Steven Stillman, 2003. "Instrumental variables and GMM: Estimation and testing," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 3(1), pages 1-31, March.
    2. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart & Carlos A. Végh, 2005. "When It Rains, It Pours: Procyclical Capital Flows and Macroeconomic Policies," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2004, Volume 19, pages 11-82 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Talvi, Ernesto & Vegh, Carlos A., 2005. "Tax base variability and procyclical fiscal policy in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(1), pages 156-190, October.
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    5. Cameron,A. Colin & Trivedi,Pravin K., 2008. "Microeconometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9787111235767.
    6. Gábor P. Kiss & Zoltán Reppa, 2010. "Quo vadis, deficit? How high the tax level will be when the economic cycle reverses?," MNB Bulletin (discontinued), Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary), vol. 5(3), pages 47-56, October.
    7. Badinger, Harald, 2010. "Output volatility and economic growth," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 106(1), pages 15-18, January.
    8. Bogdan Bogdanov, 2010. "Cyclicality of Fiscal Policy over the Business Cycle: an Empirical Study on Developed and Developing Countries," Working paper series 12010en, Agency for Economic Analysis and Forecasting.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Borce Trenovski & Biljana Tashevska, 2015. "Fiscal or monetary dominance in a small, open economy with fixed exchange rate – the case of the Republic of Macedonia," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics, vol. 33(1), pages 125-145.
    2. Borce Trenovski & Biljana Tashevska, 2014. "The Transmission Mechanism And Consequences From The Global Economic Crisis For The Macedonian Economy," Journal Articles, Center For Economic Analyses, pages 55-69, December.
    3. Goran Petrevski & Jane Bogoev & Dragan Tevdovski, 2015. "The transmission of foreign shocks to South Eastern European economies," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 42(4), pages 747-767, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    fiscal policy; cyclically adjusted balance; output gap; monetary policy change;

    JEL classification:

    • C35 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions
    • D10 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - General
    • I31 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - General Welfare, Well-Being
    • P20 - Economic Systems - - Socialist Systems and Transition Economies - - - General

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