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Fiscal Discipline and Exchange Rate Systems

Author

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  • Canzoneri, Matthew B
  • Cumby, Robert E
  • Diba, Behzad T

Abstract

A new "fiscal" theory of price determination has implications for exchange rate systems and common currency areas. We show that deeper monetary integration requires the discipline of a Ricardian regime; that is, the government must guarantee fiscal solvency for any sequence of prices or exchange rates. Particularly striking results are that a currency peg is not credible without the discipline of a Ricardian regime, and a common currency area is not viable if fiscal policy in two (or more) of the countries in the union is Non-Ricardian. Interestingly, constraints written into the Maastricht Treaty are sufficient for a Ricardian regime.

Suggested Citation

  • Canzoneri, Matthew B & Cumby, Robert E & Diba, Behzad T, 2001. "Fiscal Discipline and Exchange Rate Systems," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 111(474), pages 667-690, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecj:econjl:v:111:y:2001:i:474:p:667-90
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Barbara Annicchiarico, 2006. "Fiscal Policy and Exchange Rates," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 89(2), pages 165-185, November.
    2. Ferrero, Andrea, 2009. "Fiscal and monetary rules for a currency union," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 1-10, February.
    3. António Afonso, 2002. "Disturbing the fiscal theory of the price level: Can it fit the eu-15?," 10th International Conference on Panel Data, Berlin, July 5-6, 2002 B4-3, International Conferences on Panel Data.
    4. Kady Keita & Camelia Turcu, 2019. "How to limit fiscal procyclicality: the role of exchange rate regimes, fiscal rules and institutions," Working Papers 2019.01, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.
    5. Ondrej Schneider & Jan Zapal, 2006. "Fiscal Policy in New EU Member States: Go East, Prudent Man!," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(2), pages 139-166.
    6. Sánchez, Marcelo, 2008. "Monetary stabilisation in a currency union of small open economies," Working Paper Series 927, European Central Bank.
    7. Leith, Campbell & Wren-Lewis, Simon, 2011. "Discretionary policy in a monetary union with sovereign debt," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 93-117, January.
    8. Fritz Breuss, 2002. "Was ECB's monetary policy optimal?," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 30(3), pages 298-319, September.
    9. Kady Keita & Camelia Turcu, 2023. "Promoting Counter-Cyclical Fiscal Policy: Fiscal Rules Versus Institutions," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 65(4), pages 736-781, December.
    10. Østrup, Finn, 2005. "Fiscal Policy and Welfare under Different Exchange Rate Regimes," Working Papers 2005-1, Copenhagen Business School, Department of Finance.
    11. Leith, Campbell & Wren-Lewis, Simon, 2006. "Compatibility between monetary and fiscal policy under EMU," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(6), pages 1529-1556, August.
    12. Leith, Campbell & Wren-Lewis, Simon, 2008. "Interactions between monetary and fiscal policy under flexible exchange rates," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 2854-2882, September.
    13. Leeper, E.M. & Leith, C., 2016. "Understanding Inflation as a Joint Monetary–Fiscal Phenomenon," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 2305-2415, Elsevier.
    14. Landon, Stuart & Smith, Constance E., 2007. "Government debt spillovers in a monetary union," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 135-154, August.
    15. António Afonso & João Jalles, 2017. "Fiscal Reaction Functions Across the World: A Battle of Statistical (In-) Significance," Working Papers REM 2017/16, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    16. Hao Jin, 2016. "Quadrilemma not Trilemma: Fiscal Policy Matters," CAEPR Working Papers 2016-003, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Department of Economics, Indiana University Bloomington.
    17. Levieuge, Grégory & Lucotte, Yannick & Pradines-Jobet, Florian, 2021. "The cost of banking crises: Does the policy framework matter?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    18. Canzoneri, Matthew & Cumby, Robert & Diba, Behzad, 2010. "The Interaction Between Monetary and Fiscal Policy," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 17, pages 935-999, Elsevier.
    19. Okano, Eiji, 2014. "How important is fiscal policy cooperation in a currency union?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 266-286.
    20. Robert-Paul Berben & Jan Marc Berk, 2002. "Requirements for successful currency regimes: the Dutch and Thai experiences," MEB Series (discontinued) 2002-16, Netherlands Central Bank, Monetary and Economic Policy Department.
    21. Yeboah, Samuel, 2022. "A Systematic Review of the Association between Fiscal Policy and Monetary Policy: Interactions, Challenges, and Implications," MPRA Paper 117530, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 Dec 2022.
    22. Pieter van Foreest & Casper de Vries, 2003. "The Forex Regime and EMU Expansion," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 285-298, July.
    23. Avgeris Nikolaos & Katrakilidis Constantinos, 2013. "A Dynamic Panel, Empirical Investigation on the Link between Inflation and Fiscal Imbalances. Does Heterogeneity Matter?," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2013(2), pages 147-162.
    24. Fritz Breuss, 2002. "Was ECB's Monetary Policy Optimal?," WIFO Working Papers 173, WIFO.
    25. Philipp Paulus, 2004. "The fiscal stability impact of monetary unions - looking beneath the Stability Pact debate," Otto-Wolff-Institut Discussion Paper Series 05/2004, Otto-Wolff-Institut für Wirtschaftsordnung, Köln, Deutschland.

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