Estimating the FEER for the Czech Economy
When currency turbulences hit the Czech crown in May 1997, the research presented in this paper had been nearly finished. It tried to contribute to the discussion of sustainability of external development of the Czech economy by comparing signals given by a set of indicators to signals implied by the estimates of fundamental equilibrium exchange rate for the Czech crown. Interestingly, the method of indicators did not give an unambiguous answer. Specifically, when applied on the Czech data, debt as well as solvency indicators did not imply a danger of external crisis. Financial indicators with a shorter-time horizon did send some warning signals. Indicators of competitiveness watched by large international investors considered the Czech crown to be overvalued since 1995. In order to gain more decisive conclusion on the danger of external crisis, the structural approach was employed. The model simulations of the FEER indicated that the Czech crown became overvalued in 1996 with respect to the central parity of the exchange-rate band. This conclusion was quite robust taking into account behavior of both the real economy as well as decisive external financial flows. The Czech experience with currency turbulences provided an unintentional measure on how good the warning indicators were. The FEER methodology was able to conclude that there was a need for a policy shift in the end of 1996 although it did not give the clear warning that the exchange-rate regime itself was not sustainable.
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria & Razin, Assaf, 1996.
"Current Account Sustainability: Selected East Asian and Latin American Experiences,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
1509, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Gian Maria Milesi-Ferrett & Assaf Razin, 1996. "Current Account Sustainability: Selected East Asian and Latin American Experiences," NBER Working Papers 5791, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Assaf Razin & Gian M Milesi-Ferretti, 1996. "Current Account Sustainability; Selected East Asian and Latin American Experiences," IMF Working Papers 96/110, .
- John Williamson, 1994. "Estimating Equilibrium Exchange Rates," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 17, 03.
- Barrell, Ray & Wren-Lewis, Simon, 1989. "Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rates for the G7," CEPR Discussion Papers 323, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1996.
"Currency crashes in emerging markets: An empirical treatment,"
Journal of International Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 351-366, November.
- Jeffrey A. Frankel & Andrew K. Rose, 1996. "Currency crashes in emerging markets: an empirical treatment," International Finance Discussion Papers 534, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Calvo, Guillermo A. & Mendoza, Enrique G., 1996.
"Mexico's balance-of-payments crisis: a chronicle of a death foretold,"
Journal of International Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 235-264, November.
- Guillermo A. Calvo & Enrique G. Mendoza, 1996. "Mexico's balance-of-payments crisis: a chronicle of death foretold," International Finance Discussion Papers 545, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- LÃ¡szlÃ³ Halpern & Charles Wyplosz, 1997.
"Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Economies,"
IMF Staff Papers,
Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 44(4), pages 430-461, December.
- Lionel Halpern & Charles Wyplosz, 1996. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Economies," IMF Working Papers 96/125, .
- Steven A. Symansky & Peter B. Clark & Leonardo Bartolini & Tamim Bayoumi, 1994. "Exchange Rates and Economic Fundamentals; A Framework for Analysis," IMF Occasional Papers 115, International Monetary Fund.
- International Monetary Fund, 1996.
"The Economic Content of Indicators of Developing Country Creditworthiness,"
IMF Working Papers
- Nadeem Ul Haque & Manmohan S. Kumar & Nelson Mark & Donald J. Mathieson, 1996. "The Economic Content of Indicators of Developing Country Creditworthiness," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 43(4), pages 688-724, December.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0303014. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (EconWPA)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.