IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

Exchange Rates and Trade Balance Adjustment:A Multi-Country Empirical Analysis

Listed author(s):
  • Michael Bleaney
  • Mo Tian
Registered author(s):

This study assesses the response of the trade balance to exchange rate fluctuations across a large number of countries. Fixed-effects regressions are estimated for 87 countries on annual data from 1994 to 2010. The trade balance improves significantly after a real depreciation, and to a similar degree, in the long run for all countries, but the adjustment is significantly slower for industrial countries. Emerging markets and developing countries display relatively fast adjustment. Disaggregation into exports and imports shows that the delayed adjustment in industrial countries is almost entirely on the export side. The rate of adjustment in emerging markets is slowing over time, consistent with their eventual graduation to high-income status. The ratio of trade to GDP is also highly sensitive to the real effective exchange rate, with a real depreciation of 10% raising the trade/GDP ratio across the sample by approximately 4%. This result, which presumably reflects movements in the prices of tradables relative to non-tradables, raises questions about the widespread use of the trade/GDP ratio as a trade policy indicator, without adjustment for real exchange rate effects.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.nottingham.ac.uk/credit/documents/papers/12-10.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by University of Nottingham, CREDIT in its series Discussion Papers with number 12/10.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation:
Handle: RePEc:not:notcre:12/10
Contact details of provider: Postal:
School of Economics University of Nottingham University Park Nottingham NG7 2RD

Phone: (44) 0115 951 5620
Fax: (0115) 951 4159
Web page: http://www.nottingham.ac.uk/economics/

More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. José Manuel Campa & Linda S. Goldberg, 2005. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through into Import Prices," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(4), pages 679-690, November.
  2. Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier & Rey, Hélène, 2005. "From World Banker to World Venture Capitalist: US External Adjustment and the Exorbitant Privilege," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Docweb) 0606, CEPREMAP.
  3. Kiminori Matsuyama, 1990. "Agricultural Productivity, Comparative Advantage, and Economic Growth," Discussion Papers 934, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  4. Calvo, Guillermo A. & Izquierdo, Alejandro & Loo-Kung, Rudy, 2006. "Relative price volatility under Sudden Stops: The relevance of balance sheet effects," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 231-254, June.
  5. Lukasz A. Drozd & Jaromir B. Nosal, 2008. "Understanding international prices: customers as capital," Staff Report 411, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  6. Michael Bleaney & Manuela Francisco, 2010. "What Makes Currencies Volatile? An Empirical Investigation," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 21(5), pages 731-750, November.
  7. Dimitris K. Christopoulos & Karine Gente & Miguel A. Leon-Ledesma, 2010. "Net Foreign Assets, Productivity and Real Exchange Rates in Constrained Economies," Studies in Economics 1011, School of Economics, University of Kent.
  8. Frankel, Jeffrey A., 2011. "Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets: A Survey," Scholarly Articles 4669671, Harvard Kennedy School of Government.
  9. Crucini, Mario J. & Davis, J. Scott, 2013. "Distribution capital and the short- and long-run import demand elasticity," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 137, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  10. Frankel, Jeffrey, 2005. "Contractionary Currency Crashes In Developing Countries," Working Paper Series rwp05-017, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
  11. V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 2000. "Sticky Price Models of the Business Cycle: Can the Contract Multiplier Solve the Persistence Problem?," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(5), pages 1151-1180, September.
  12. Jean Imbs & Isabelle Mejean, 2008. "Elasticity Optimism," EIEF Working Papers Series 0805, Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance (EIEF), revised Mar 2008.
  13. Frankel, Jeffrey, 2010. "Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 25, pages 1439-1520 Elsevier.
  14. Feenstra, Robert C., 2003. "A homothetic utility function for monopolistic competition models, without constant price elasticity," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 78(1), pages 79-86, January.
  15. Paul R. Bergin & Robert C. Feenstra, 1999. "Pricing to Market, Staggered Contracts, and Real Exchange Rate Persistence," NBER Working Papers 7026, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. George Alessandria & Joseph Kaboski & Virgiliu Midrigan, 2008. "Inventories, Lumpy Trade, and Large Devaluations," NBER Working Papers 13790, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Lombardo, Giovanni, 2002. "Price rigidity, the mark-up and the dynamics of the current account," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2002,14, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  18. Michael Bleaney & Manuela Francisco, 2009. "What Makes Currencies Volatile? An Empirical Investigation," NIPE Working Papers 22/2009, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
  19. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth S., 1995. "Exchange Rate Dynamics Redux," Scholarly Articles 12491026, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  20. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1987. "Exchange Rates and Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(1), pages 93-106, March.
  21. Backus, David K & Kehoe, Patrick J & Kydland, Finn E, 1994. "Dynamics of the Trade Balance and the Terms of Trade: The J-Curve?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(1), pages 84-103, March.
  22. Peter Isard, 2007. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates; Assessment Methodologies," IMF Working Papers 07/296, International Monetary Fund.
  23. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Artatrana Ratha, 2004. "The J-Curve: a literature review," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(13), pages 1377-1398.
  24. Philip R. Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2000. "The Transfer Problem Revisited: Net Foreign Assets and Real Exchange Rates," Working Papers 062000, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  25. Rose, Andrew K. & Yellen, Janet L., 1989. "Is there a J-curve?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 53-68, July.
  26. Boyd, Derick & Caporale, Gugielmo Maria & Smith, Ron, 2001. "Real Exchange Rate Effects on the Balance of Trade: Cointegration and the Marshall-Lerner Condition," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(3), pages 187-200, July.
  27. Charles Engel & Jian Wang, 2008. "International Trade in Durable Goods: Understanding Volatility, Cyclicality, and Elasticities," NBER Working Papers 13814, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  28. VJeffrey A. Frankel, 2005. "Mundell-Fleming Lecture: Contractionary Currency Crashes in Developing Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 52(2), pages 149-192, September.
  29. Mark Aguiar & Gita Gopinath, 2004. "Emerging market business cycles: the cycle is the trend," Working Papers 04-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  30. C. Bora Durdu & Enrique G. Mendoza & Marco E. Terrones, 2012. "On the Solvency of Nations: Cross-Country Evidence on the Dynamics of External Adjustment," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1218, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
  31. Aguiar, Mark & Gopinath, Gita, 2007. "Emerging Market Business Cycles: The Cycle is the Trend," Scholarly Articles 11988098, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  32. Sachs, Jeffrey D. & Warner, Andrew M., 2001. "The curse of natural resources," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(4-6), pages 827-838, May.
  33. Benassy, Jean-Pascal, 1996. "Taste for variety and optimum production patterns in monopolistic competition," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 41-47, July.
  34. Gallaway, Michael P. & McDaniel, Christine A. & Rivera, Sandra A., 2003. "Short-run and long-run industry-level estimates of U.S. Armington elasticities," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 49-68, March.
  35. Bergin, Paul R. & Feenstra, Robert C., 2000. "Staggered price setting, translog preferences, and endogenous persistence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 657-680, June.
  36. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee, 2010. "The J- and S-curves: a survey of the recent literature," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 37(6), pages 580-596, November.
  37. repec:hoo:wpaper:e-92-3 is not listed on IDEAS
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:not:notcre:12/10. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Hilary Hughes)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.