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On the suitability of alternative competitiveness indicators for explaining real exports of advanced economies

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  • Fischer, Christoph
  • Hossfeld, Oliver
  • Radeck, Karin

Abstract

Real exports are commonly specified as depending on an indicator of price competitiveness and on a measure of foreign activity. This study empirically investigates the suitability of alternative competitiveness indicators in explaining real exports for a broad group of advanced economies. To this end, a panel cointegration analysis is conducted, augmented by a forecasting exercise. In the latter, repeated sampling techniques are used in order to avoid arbitrary sample splits. We find that broad price- and cost-based indicators are to be preferred to narrow price based measures such as CPI- or PPI-deflated real exchange rates. Furthermore, the evidence points towards using world trade as the external activity variable instead of GDP- or real imports-based measures.

Suggested Citation

  • Fischer, Christoph & Hossfeld, Oliver & Radeck, Karin, 2016. "On the suitability of alternative competitiveness indicators for explaining real exports of advanced economies," Discussion Papers 36/2016, Deutsche Bundesbank.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdps:362016
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    international price competitiveness; real export demand; price elasticity of exports;

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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