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A Center-Periphery Model of Monetary Coordination and Exchange Rate Crises

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  • Willem H. Buiter
  • Giancarlo Corsetti
  • Paolo A. Pesenti

Abstract

The paper analyzes the modalities and consequences of a breakdown of cooperation between the monetary authorities of inflation-prone Periphery Countries that use an exchange rate peg as an anti- inflationary device, when the Center is hit by an aggregate demand shock. Cooperation in the Periphery is constrained to be symmetric: costs and benefits must be equal for all. Our model suggests that there are at least two ways in which a generalized crisis of the exchange rate system may emerge. The first is when the constrained cooperative response of the Periphery is a moderate common devaluation while the non-cooperative equilibrium has large devaluations by a few countries. An exchange rate crisis emerges if Periphery countries give in to their individual incentives to renege on the cooperative agreement. In the second case, the Center shock is not large enough to trigger a general devaluation in the constrained cooperative equilibrium; yet some of the Periphery countries would devalue in the Nash equilibrium, making the monetary stance in the system more expansionary. In this case, reversion to Nash is collectively rational. We offer this model as a useful parable for interpreting the collapse of the EMR in 1992-93.

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  • Willem H. Buiter & Giancarlo Corsetti & Paolo A. Pesenti, 1995. "A Center-Periphery Model of Monetary Coordination and Exchange Rate Crises," NBER Working Papers 5140, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:5140
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    Cited by:

    1. Chantal Dupasquier & Patrick N. Osakwe & Shandre M. Thangavelu, 2005. "Choice of Monetary and Exchange Regimes in ECOWAS : An Optimum Currency Area Analysis," Macroeconomics Working Papers 22570, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    2. Thomson Fontaine, 2005. "Currency Crises in Developed and Emerging Market Economies; A Comparative Empirical Treatment," IMF Working Papers 05/13, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Weber, Axel A., 1997. "Sources of Currency Crisis: An Empirical Analysis," Discussion Paper Serie B 418, University of Bonn, Germany.
    4. Marion Kohler, 1998. "Optimal currency areas and customs unions: are they connected?," Bank of England working papers 89, Bank of England.
    5. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1996. "Models of currency crises with self-fulfilling features," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-5), pages 1037-1047, April.
    6. Loisel, Olivier & Martin, Philippe, 2001. "Coordination, cooperation, contagion and currency crises," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 399-419, April.
    7. Kohler, Marion, 2002. "Coalition formation in international monetary policy games," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 371-385, March.
    8. Buiter, Willem H., 1995. "Macroeconomic policy during a transition to monetary union," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 20701, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    9. Balogun, Emmanuel Dele, 2008. "An Empirical Test of Trade Gravity Model Criteria for the West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ)," MPRA Paper 7083, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Lane, Philip R, 2000. " Asymmetric Shocks and Monetary Policy in a Currency Union," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 102(4), pages 585-604, December.
    11. Axel A. Weber, 1998. "Sources of Currency Crises: An Empirical Analysis," Working Papers 25, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    12. Lodovico Pizzati, 2000. "Monetary Policy Coordination and the Level of National Debt," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 27(4), pages 389-409, December.
    13. Lane, Philip R., 1996. "Stabilization policy in a currency union," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 53-60, October.
    14. Balogun, Emmanuel Dele, 2008. "An alternative reconsideration of macroeconomic convergence criteria for West African Monetary Zone," MPRA Paper 11367, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Chantal Dupasquier & Patrick N. Osakwe & Shandre M. Thangavelu, 2005. "Choice of Monetary and Exchange Regimes in ECOWAS: An Optimum Currency Area Analysis," SCAPE Policy Research Working Paper Series 0510, National University of Singapore, Department of Economics, SCAPE.
    16. Olivier Jeanne, 1996. "Les modèles de crise de change : un essai de synthèse en relation avec la crise du franc de 1992-1993," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 123(2), pages 147-162.
    17. Jeanne, Olivier, 1997. "Are currency crises self-fulfilling?: A test," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3-4), pages 263-286, November.
    18. Jesper Rangvid, 1997. "Deviations from long-run equilibria and probabilities of devaluations: An empirical analysis of Danish realignments," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 133(3), pages 497-522, September.
    19. Balogun, Emmanuel Dele, 2009. "Alternative reconsideration of output growth differrential for the West African Monetary Zone," MPRA Paper 13416, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions

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