IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/kondp2/277.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The political choice and collapse of fixed exchange rates

Author

Listed:
  • Hefeker, Carsten

Abstract

Evidence suggests there is a strong tendency among states to choose fixed exchange rates. Yet he interpretation of fixed exchange rates as a monetary policy rule remains unconvincing. Adopting an endogenous policy perspective, this paper argues that political-support maximizing governments choose fixed exchange rates to benefit domestic interest groups. Exogenous shocks, however, may change domestic political equilibria, causing the collapse of international arrangements and the switch to flexible exchange rates. Institutional pecularities make monetary unification a special case in this cycle.

Suggested Citation

  • Hefeker, Carsten, 1995. "The political choice and collapse of fixed exchange rates," Discussion Papers, Series II 277, University of Konstanz, Collaborative Research Centre (SFB) 178 "Internationalization of the Economy".
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:kondp2:277
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/101491/1/733720579.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bayoumi, Tamim & Eichengreen, Barry, 1994. "Macroeconomic Adjustment under Bretton Woods and the Post-Bretton-Woods Float: An Impulse-Response Analysis," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(425), pages 813-827, July.
    2. Ozkan, F Gulcin & Sutherland, Alan, 1995. "Policy Measures to Avoid a Currency Crisis," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(429), pages 510-519, March.
    3. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Wei, Shang-Jin, 1993. "Emerging Currency Blocs," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers 233209, University of California-Berkeley, Department of Economics.
    4. Jacques Mélitz, 1996. "The theory of optimum currency areas, trade adjustment, and trade," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 7(2), pages 99-116, April.
    5. Baxter, Marianne & Stockman, Alan C., 1989. "Business cycles and the exchange-rate regime : Some international evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 377-400, May.
    6. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1986. "Rational and Self-fulfilling Balance-of-Payments Crises," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(1), pages 72-81, March.
    7. Barry Eichengreen & Jeffry Frieden, 1993. "The Political Economy Of European Monetary Unification: An Analytical Introduction," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(2), pages 85-104, July.
    8. David Romer, 1993. "Openness and Inflation: Theory and Evidence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 108(4), pages 869-903.
    9. C. Hefeker, 1994. "German Monetary Union, the Bundesbank and the EMS collapse," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 47(191), pages 379-398.
    10. Bofinger, Peter, 1994. "Is Europe an Optimum Currency Area?," CEPR Discussion Papers 915, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Alogoskoufis, George S & Smith, Ron, 1991. "The Phillips Curve, the Persistence of Inflation, and the Lucas Critique: Evidence from Exchange-Rate Regimes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(5), pages 1254-1275, December.
    12. Dowd, Kevin & Greenaway, David, 1993. "Currency Competition, Network Externalities and Switching Costs: Towards an Alternative View of Optimum Currency Areas," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 103(420), pages 1180-1189, September.
    13. Peree, Eric & Steinherr, Alfred, 1989. "Exchange rate uncertainty and foreign trade," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1241-1264, July.
    14. Richard Baldwin & Paul Krugman, 1989. "Persistent Trade Effects of Large Exchange Rate Shocks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 104(4), pages 635-654.
    15. Michael D. Bordo & Finn E. Kydland, 1990. "The Gold Standard as a Rule," NBER Working Papers 3367, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Maurice Obstfeld, 1994. "The Logic of Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 4640, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Süppel, Ralph & von Hagen, Jürgen, 1994. "Central Bank Constitutions for Monetary Unions," CEPR Discussion Papers 919, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    18. Vaubel, Roland, 1990. "Currency Competition and European Monetary Integration," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 100(402), pages 936-946, September.
    19. Gros, Daniel, 1992. "Capital controls and foreign exchange market crises in the EMS," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 1533-1544, December.
    20. von Hagen, Jurgen & Suppel, Ralph, 1994. "Central bank constitutions for federal monetary unions," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(3-4), pages 774-782, April.
    21. Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 311-325, August.
    22. Wyplosz, Charles, 1986. "Capital controls and balance of payments crises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 167-179, June.
    23. Eichengreen, Barry, 1993. "European Monetary Unification," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 31(3), pages 1321-1357, September.
    24. Eichengreen, Barry, 1996. "Golden Fetters: The Gold Standard and the Great Depression, 1919-1939," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195101133, Decembrie.
    25. de Kock, Gabriel & Grilli, Vittorio, 1993. "Fiscal Policies and the Choice of Exchange Rate Regime," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 103(417), pages 347-358, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. H.P. Grãœner & C. Hefeker, 1995. "Domestic pressures and the exchange rate regime: why economically bad decisions are politically popular?," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 48(194), pages 331-350.
    2. Georg Erber & Harald Hagemann, 1996. "Sustainable Price Stability for Europe: Prospective Effects of a European Central Bank on Long-Term Growth and Employment ; Lessons from the Past: The EU Countries and the EMS," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 65(3), pages 381-391.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. H.P. Grãœner & C. Hefeker, 1995. "Domestic pressures and the exchange rate regime: why economically bad decisions are politically popular?," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 48(194), pages 331-350.
    2. Barry Eichengreen., 1993. "International Monetary Arrangements for the 21st Century," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C93-021, University of California at Berkeley.
    3. Eichengreen, Barry, 1994. "The Bretton Woods System: Paradise Lost?," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers 233394, University of California-Berkeley, Department of Economics.
    4. Eichengreen, Barry & Rose, Andrew K & Wyplosz, Charles, 1994. "Speculative Attacks on Pegged Exchange Rates: An Empirical Exploration with Special Reference to the European Monetary System," CEPR Discussion Papers 1060, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Piersanti, Giovanni, 2012. "The Macroeconomic Theory of Exchange Rate Crises," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199653126.
    6. Willem H. Buiter & Giancarlo Corsetti & Paolo A. Pesenti, 1995. "A Center-Periphery Model of Monetary Coordination and Exchange Rate Crises," NBER Working Papers 5140, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Barry Eichengreen., 1994. "History and Reform of the International Monetary System," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C94-041, University of California at Berkeley.
    8. Bernard Bensaïd & Olivier Jeanne, 1996. "Fragilité des systèmes de change fixe et contrôle des capitaux," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 123(2), pages 163-174.
    9. Sachs, Jeffrey & Tornell, Aaron & Velasco, Andres, 1996. "The Mexican peso crisis: Sudden death or death foretold?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 265-283, November.
    10. Andres Velasco, 1996. "When Are Fixed Exchange Rates Really Fixed?," NBER Working Papers 5842, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Axel A. Weber, 1998. "Sources of Currency Crises: An Empirical Analysis," Working Papers 25, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    12. Ozkan, F. Gulcin & Sutherland, Alan, 1998. "A currency crisis model with an optimising policymaker," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 339-364, April.
    13. Velasco, Andres, 1996. "Fixed exchange rates: Credibility, flexibility and multiplicity," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-5), pages 1023-1035, April.
    14. Velasco, Andres, 1997. "When are fixed exchange rates really fixed?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 5-25, October.
    15. Patrick Artus & Claude Jessua, 1996. "La spéculation," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 47(3), pages 409-424.
    16. Gian Maria Milesi Ferretti & Assaf Razin, 2000. "Current Account Reversals and Currency Crises: Empirical Regularities," NBER Chapters, in: Currency Crises, pages 285-323, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Komulainen, Tuomas, 2001. "Currency crises in emerging markets : Capital flows and herding behaviour," BOFIT Discussion Papers 10/2001, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    18. Ahec Šonje, Amina & Babić, Ante, 2002. "Measuring and predicting currency disturbances in Croatia: the “signals” approach," MPRA Paper 83137, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Apr 2002.
    19. Maurice Obstfeld, 1995. "Intenational Currency Experience: New Lessons and Lessons Relearned," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(1, 25th A), pages 119-220.
    20. Brana, Sophie & Chenaf-Nicet, Dalila, 2001. "Indicateurs avancés de crise de change : un examen critique," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 77(4), pages 569-592, décembre.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    exchange rate regime; monetary union; political economy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • F02 - International Economics - - General - - - International Economic Order and Integration
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:kondp2:277. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/fwkonde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.