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Exchange Rate Volatility as a Barrier to Trade: New Methodologies and Recent Evidence

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  • Daria Taglioni

Abstract

The analysis of the border effect in a multi-currency framework reveals that volatility accounts for an important part of the border effect in Europe. This paper proposes an explanation of why this methodology yields robust results of the negative effects of volatility on trade, contrary to a three decades-old literature that is characterised by weak and controversial results.

Suggested Citation

  • Daria Taglioni, 2002. "Exchange Rate Volatility as a Barrier to Trade: New Methodologies and Recent Evidence," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 89-90, pages 227-259.
  • Handle: RePEc:cii:cepiei:2002-1t-2th
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Jean-Marc Siroën, 2016. "L'OMC face à la crise des négociations multilatérales," Working Papers hal-01399859, HAL.
    2. Sarah Guillou, 2008. "Exports and exchange rate : a firm-level investigation," Working Papers hal-00973044, HAL.
    3. Tomanova, Lucie, 2013. "Exchange Rate Volatility and the Foreign Trade in CEEC," EY International Congress on Economics I (EYC2013), October 24-25, 2013, Ankara, Turkey 267, Ekonomik Yaklasim Association.
    4. repec:sgh:gosnar:y:2017:i:3:p:115-141 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Combes, Pierre-Philippe & Lafourcade, Miren & Mayer, Thierry, 2005. "The trade-creating effects of business and social networks: evidence from France," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1), pages 1-29, May.
    6. Auboin, Marc & Ruta, Michele, 2013. "The relationship between exchange rates and international trade: a literature review," World Trade Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(03), pages 577-605, July.
    7. Weber, Henning & Herwartz, Helmut, 2008. "When, how fast and by how much do trade costs change in the euro area?," Discussion Papers 2008/18, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    8. Sarah Guillou, 2008. "Exports and Exchange Rate: A Firm-Level Investigation. Workshop : International Activities and Firm Performance, 27-28 February 2008, Nottingham," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/9941, Sciences Po.
    9. Bénassy-Quéré, Agnès & Forouheshfar, Yeganeh, 2015. "The impact of yuan internationalization on the stability of the international monetary system," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 115-135.
    10. Balázs Égert & Amalia Morales-Zumaquero, 2008. "Exchange Rate Regimes, Foreign Exchange Volatility, and Export Performance in Central and Eastern Europe: Just another Blur Project?," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(3), pages 577-593, August.
    11. Hasanov Akram, 2011. "Exchange rate risk and trade flows: the case of Belarus, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Ukraine," EERC Working Paper Series 11/09e, EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS.
    12. Auboin, Marc & Ruta, Michel, 2011. "The relationship between exchange rates and International Trade: A review of economic literature," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2011-17, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
    13. Kuo-I CHANG & Kazunobu HAYAKAWA, 2010. "Border Barriers In Agricultural Trade And The Impact Of Their Elimination: Evidence From East Asia," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 48(2), pages 232-246.
    14. Balogun, Emmanuel Dele, 2009. "Determinants of West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ)countries global export trade: do foreign reserves and independent exchange rates matter?," MPRA Paper 12929, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Baldwin, Richard E. & Skudelny, Frauke & Taglioni, Daria, 2005. "Trade effects of the euro: evidence from sectoral data," Working Paper Series 446, European Central Bank.
    16. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/6151 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Claudio Paiva, 2008. "Assessing protectionism and subsidies in agriculture-a gravity approach," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(5), pages 628-640.
    18. Balázs Égert & Amalia Morales-Zumaquero, 2005. "Exchange Rate Regimes, Foreign Exchange Volatility and Export Performance in Central and Eastern Europe," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 76-97.
    19. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/9941 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Akram Shavkatovich Hasanov Author_Email: & Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Mahendran Shitan & Zainidin Karimovich Eshkuvatov, 2011. "Exchange Rate Risk And Trade Flows: A Gravity Equation Approach," 2nd International Conference on Business and Economic Research (2nd ICBER 2011) Proceeding 2011-312, Conference Master Resources.
    21. repec:ers:journl:v:xx:y:2017:i:3a:p:758-773 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Yang, Guangpu & Gu, Qingyang, 2016. "Effects of exchange rate variations on bilateral trade with a vehicle currency: Evidence from China and Singapore," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 50-73.
    23. Jana Šimáková & Daniel Stavárek, 2015. "The Effect of the Exchange Rate on Industry-Level Trade Flows in Czechia," Working Papers 0001, Silesian University, School of Business Administration.
    24. Alam, Shaista & Ahmed, Qazi Masood, 2012. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Aggregate Exports Demand through ARDL Framework: An Experience from Pakistan Economy," Review of Applied Economics, Review of Applied Economics, vol. 8(1).
    25. Balogun, Emmanuel Dele, 2007. "Effects of exchange rate policy on bilateral export trade of WAMZ countries," MPRA Paper 6234, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange Rate Volatility; Trade; Gravity; Border; Sector;

    JEL classification:

    • F12 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies; Fragmentation
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation

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