Measuring the correlation of shocks between the EU15 and the new member countries
This paper considers the question of the symmetry of inflation, exchange rate changes and GDP shocks between the EU15 and the new member countries. It applies a relatively new technique, the orthogonal GARCH model, which allows us to calculate a complete time varying correlation matrix for these countries. We can then examine the way the conditional correlation of shocks between the EU15 and the new member countries has been evolving over time. Our results suggest that the shocks which hit the EU are not symmetrical with those affecting the majority of new member countries. In addition, most of the new member countries seem to exhibit relatively low correlation with EU15.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 39 (2006)
Issue (Month): 1 (June)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.springer.com|
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.springer.com/economics/development/journal/10644/PS2|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Bollerslev, Tim & Engle, Robert F & Wooldridge, Jeffrey M, 1988. "A Capital Asset Pricing Model with Time-Varying Covariances," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(1), pages 116-131, February.
- Kenneth Rogoff, 2001.
"Why Not a Global Currency?,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 243-247, May.
- Rogoff, Kenneth S., 2001. "Why Not a Global Currency?," Scholarly Articles 11129183, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Roy van der Weide, 2002. "GO-GARCH: a multivariate generalized orthogonal GARCH model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(5), pages 549-564.
- Engle, Robert F. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Multivariate Simultaneous Generalized ARCH," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(01), pages 122-150, February.
- Bennett T. McCallum, 1999. "Theoretical Issues Pertaining to Monetary Unions," NBER Working Papers 7393, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Heather D. Gibson & Euclid Tsakalotos, 2004. "Capital flows and speculative attacks in prospective EU member states," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 12(3), pages 559-586, 09.
- Heather D Gibson & Euclid Tsakalotos, 2003. "Capital Flows and Speculative Attacks in Prospective EU Member States," Working Papers 06, Bank of Greece.
- Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1997. "Is EMU more justifiable ex post than ex ante?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-5), pages 753-760, April. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)