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Measuring the Correlation of Shocks Between the UK and the Core of Europe

Author

Listed:
  • Hall, S.G.

    (Leicester University and NIESR)

  • Yhap, B.

    (Imperial College, UK.)

Abstract

This paper considers the question of the symmetry of inflation and GDP shocks between the UK and the three major European EMU countries. It applies a relatively new technique, the orthogonal GARCH model, which allows us to calculate a complete time varying correlation matrix for these four countries. We can then examine the way the conditional correlation of shocks between the UK and the other European countries ahs been evolving over time. Our overall results Show that the shocks, which hit the UK, are now broadly symmetrical with France and Italy but that Germany seems to exhibit very low correlation with any of the other three countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Hall, S.G. & Yhap, B., 2008. "Measuring the Correlation of Shocks Between the UK and the Core of Europe," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 5(1), pages 17-26, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v:5:y:2008:i:1:p:17-26
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kenneth Rogoff, 2001. "Why Not a Global Currency?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 243-247, May.
    2. Engle, Robert F. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Multivariate Simultaneous Generalized ARCH," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(1), pages 122-150, February.
    3. M.J. Artis, 2003. "Reflections on the optimal currency area (OCA) criteria in the light of EMU," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(4), pages 297-307.
    4. Bennett T. McCallum, 1999. "Theoretical Issues Pertaining to Monetary Unions," NBER Working Papers 7393, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Bollerslev, Tim & Engle, Robert F & Wooldridge, Jeffrey M, 1988. "A Capital Asset Pricing Model with Time-Varying Covariances," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(1), pages 116-131, February.
    6. McKinnon, Ronald I, 1994. "A Common Monetary Standard or a Common Currency for Europe? Fiscal Lessons from the United States," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 41(4), pages 337-357, November.
    7. Buiter, Willem, 2000. "Optimal Currency Areas: Why Does The Exchange Rate Regime Matter?," CEPR Discussion Papers 2366, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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    9. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1997. "Is EMU more justifiable ex post than ex ante?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-5), pages 753-760, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Scutaru, Cornelia & Fomin, Petre & Stanica, Cristian, 2010. "Prospects for the Evolution of the Economic Sectors’ Behavior," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(5), pages 120-142.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Shocks; EMU; Europe; GARCH;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General

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