Identifying the Shocks behind Business Cycle Asynchrony in Euroland
This paper investigates which shocks drive asynchrony of business cycles in the euro area. Thereby, it unites two strands of literature, those on common features and on structural VAR analysis. In particular, we show that the presence of a common cycle implies collinearity of structural impulse responses. Several Wald tests are applied to the latter hypothesis. Results reveal that differences in the GDP dynamics in several peripheral countries compared to a euro zone core are triggered by idiosyncratic, and to a lesser extent also world, shocks. Additionally, real shocks prove relevant rather than nominal ones.
|Date of creation:||13 Jun 2012|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: +49 941 943-2392
Fax: +49 941 943-4752
Web page: http://www-wiwi.uni-regensburg.de/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Trenkler, Carsten & Weber, Enzo, 2012.
"Codependent VAR Models and the Pseudo-Structural Form,"
University of Regensburg Working Papers in Business, Economics and Management Information Systems
465, University of Regensburg, Department of Economics.
- Carsten Trenkler & Enzo Weber, 2013. "Codependent VAR models and the pseudo-structural form," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer, vol. 97(3), pages 287-295, July.
- Trenkler, Carsten & Weber, Enzo, 2012. "Codependent VAR Models and the Pseudo-Structural Form," Working Papers 12-10, University of Mannheim, Department of Economics.
- Poskitt, D. S., 2003. "On the specification of cointegrated autoregressive moving-average forecasting systems," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 503-519.
- Engle, Robert F & Kozicki, Sharon, 1993.
"Testing for Common Features,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 11(4), pages 369-80, October.
- Nikos Christodoulakis, 2009.
"Ten years of EMU: convergence, divergence and new policy priorities,"
LSE Research Online Documents on Economics
23192, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Nikos Christodoulakis, 2009. "Ten Years Of Emu: Convergence, Divergence And New Policy Priorities," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 208(1), pages 86-100, April.
- Nicos Christodoulakis, 2008. "Ten years of EMU: Convergence, Divergence and New Policy Priorities," Research and Policy Notes 2008/01, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
- Nikos Christodoulakis, 2009. "Ten Years of EMU: convergence, divergence and new policy priorities," GreeSE – Hellenic Observatory Papers on Greece and Southeast Europe 22, Hellenic Observatory, LSE.
- Olivier Jean Blanchard & Danny Quah, 1988.
"The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbance,"
497, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-73, September.
- Olivier Jean Blanchard & Danny Quah, 1988. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," NBER Working Papers 2737, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bernard, A.B. & Durlauf, S.N., 1993.
"Convergence in International Output,"
93-7, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- Horowitz, Joel L., 2001. "The Bootstrap," Handbook of Econometrics, in: J.J. Heckman & E.E. Leamer (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 52, pages 3159-3228 Elsevier.
- Lutz Kilian & Yun Jung Kim, 2011. "How Reliable Are Local Projection Estimators of Impulse Responses?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 93(4), pages 1460-1466, November.
- Trenkler, Carsten & Weber, Enzo, 2010. "Testing for Codependence of Non-Stationary Variables," University of Regensburg Working Papers in Business, Economics and Management Information Systems 446, University of Regensburg, Department of Economics.
- Atsushi Inoue & Lutz Kilian, 2002. "Bootstrapping Smooth Functions of Slope Parameters and Innovation Variances in VAR (∞) Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 43(2), pages 309-332, May.
- Vahid, F & Engle, Robert F, 1993. "Common Trends and Common Cycles," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(4), pages 341-60, Oct.-Dec..
- Christoph Schleicher, 2007.
"Codependence in cointegrated autoregressive models,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 137-159.
- Christoph Schleicher, 2004. "Codependence in Cointegrated Autoregressive Models," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 286, Society for Computational Economics.
- Engle, Robert F & Kozicki, Sharon, 1993. "Testing for Common Features: Reply," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(4), pages 393-95, October.
- Lütkepohl, Helmut & POSKITT, D.S., 1996. "Testing for Causation Using Infinite Order Vector Autoregressive Processes," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(01), pages 61-87, March.
- Kim, Yoonbai & Chow, Hwee Kwan, 2003. "Optimum currency area in Europe: an alternative assessment," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 81(3), pages 297-304, December.
- Paruolo Paolo, 2003. "Common dynamics in I(1) VAR systems," Economics and Quantitative Methods qf0316, Department of Economics, University of Insubria.
- Dellas, Harris & Tavlas, George S., 2009.
"An optimum-currency-area odyssey,"
Journal of International Money and Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 28(7), pages 1117-1137, November.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bay:rdwiwi:24774. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Gernot Deinzer)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.