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Common dynamics in I(1) VAR systems

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  • Paruolo Paolo

    () (Department of Economics, University of Insubria, Italy)

Abstract

This paper discusses common cycles in I(1) vector autoregressive (VAR) systems, both for the first di¤erences of the process and for deviations from equilibrium. This extension is based on the equilibrium dynamics representation of I(1) systems, which is presented in this paper. Inference on the number of common features is addressed via reduced rank regression, as well as estimation of the cofeature relations and specification testing. An empirical application on five US monthly macro and financial time series illustrates the techniques presented in the paper. We find one cointegrating relation and one cofeature vector in the equilibrium dynamics formulation, implying four common trends and four common cycles in the system.

Suggested Citation

  • Paruolo Paolo, 2003. "Common dynamics in I(1) VAR systems," Economics and Quantitative Methods qf0316, Department of Economics, University of Insubria.
  • Handle: RePEc:ins:quaeco:qf0316
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    Cited by:

    1. Trenkler, Carsten & Weber, Enzo, 2012. "Identifying the Shocks behind Business Cycle Asynchrony in Euroland," Working Papers 12-11, University of Mannheim, Department of Economics.
    2. Cubadda, Gianluca, 2007. "A unifying framework for analysing common cyclical features in cointegrated time series," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, pages 896-906.
    3. Paruolo, Paolo, 2006. "Common trends and cycles in I(2) VAR systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, pages 143-168.
    4. Massimiliano Castellani & Luca Fanelli & Marco Savioli, 2013. "Government Fiscal Efforts vs. Labour Union Strikes: It Takes Two to Tango," Working Paper series 33_13, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, revised Jan 2014.
    5. Luca Fanelli, 2008. "Testing the New Keynesian Phillips Curve Through Vector Autoregressive Models: Results from the Euro Area," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 70(1), pages 53-66, February.
    6. Luca Fanelli & Giulio Palomba, 2011. "Simulation‐based tests of forward‐looking models under VAR learning dynamics," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(5), pages 762-782, August.
    7. Marcel Gorenflo, 2013. "Futures price dynamics of CO 2 emission allowances," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(3), pages 1025-1047, December.
    8. Franchi, Massimo & Paruolo, Paolo, 2011. "A characterization of vector autoregressive processes with common cyclical features," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 163(1), pages 105-117, July.
    9. Carsten Trenkler & Enzo Weber, 2013. "Codependent VAR models and the pseudo-structural form," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, pages 287-295.
    10. Swensen, Anders Rygh, 2011. "A bootstrap algorithm for testing cointegration rank in VAR models in the presence of stationary variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 165(2), pages 152-162.
    11. Fanelli, Luca, 2008. "Evaluating New Keynesian Phillips Curve under VAR-Based Learning," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), vol. 2, pages 1-24.

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