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Common trends and cycles in I(2) VAR systems

  • Paruolo, Paolo

This paper analyzes common cycles in I(2) vector autoregressive (VAR) systems. We consider di®erent choices of stationary variables extracted from a VAR, including deviations from equilibria. This extension is based on the equilibrium dynamics representation of the system, introduced in this paper. Inference on the number of common features is addressed via reduced rank regression, as well as estimation of the cofeature relations and testing. An application to Australian prices is presented; it is found that the deviation from one equilibrium relation is an innovation process, whereas no common cycles can be obtained for the acceleration rates.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 132 (2006)
Issue (Month): 1 (May)
Pages: 143-168

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Handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:132:y:2006:i:1:p:143-168
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jeconom

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  1. Rahbek, Anders & Christian Kongsted, Hans & Jorgensen, Clara, 1999. "Trend stationarity in the I(2) cointegration model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 265-289, June.
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  3. Paruolo Paolo, 2002. "Testing for common trends in conditional I(2) VAR models," Economics and Quantitative Methods qf0216, Department of Economics, University of Insubria.
  4. Alain Hecq & Franz Palm & Jean-Pierre Urbain, 2001. "Testing for Common Cyclical Features in Var Models with Cointegration," CESifo Working Paper Series 451, CESifo Group Munich.
  5. Campbell, John & Shiller, Robert, 1987. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," Scholarly Articles 3122490, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  6. Hecq, Alain & Palm, Franz C. & Urbain, Jean-Pierre, 2006. "Common cyclical features analysis in VAR models with cointegration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 117-141, May.
  7. Paruolo, Paolo, 2000. "Asymptotic Efficiency Of The Two Stage Estimator In I (2) Systems," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(04), pages 524-550, August.
  8. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1991. "A simple estimator of cointegrating vectors in higher order integrated systems," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 91-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  9. Paruolo Paolo, . "The power of lambda max," Economics and Quantitative Methods qf0004, Department of Economics, University of Insubria.
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  14. Johansen, Soren, 1992. "Determination of Cointegration Rank in the Presence of a Linear Trend," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 383-97, August.
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  16. Paruolo, Paolo, 2002. "Asymptotic Inference On The Moving Average Impact Matrix In Cointegrated I (2) Var Systems," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(03), pages 673-690, June.
  17. Cubadda, Gianluca, 1999. "Common Cycles in Seasonal Non-stationary Time Series," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(3), pages 273-91, May-June.
  18. Alain Hecq & Franz Palm & Jean-Pierre Urbain, 2002. "Separation, Weak Exogeneity, And P-T Decomposition In Cointegrated Var Systems With Common Features," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(3), pages 273-307.
  19. Gianluca Cubadda, 2001. "Common Features In Time Series With Both Deterministic And Stochastic Seasonality," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(2), pages 201-216.
  20. Engle, Robert F & Kozicki, Sharon, 1993. "Testing for Common Features," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(4), pages 369-80, October.
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  25. Omtzigt, Pieter & Paruolo, Paolo, 2005. "Impact factors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 128(1), pages 31-68, September.
  26. Cubadda, Gianluca & Hecq, Alain, 2001. "On non-contemporaneous short-run co-movements," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 73(3), pages 389-397, December.
  27. Boswijk, H. Peter, 2000. "Mixed Normality And Ancillarity In I(2) Systems," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(06), pages 878-904, December.
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  33. Vahid, F & Engle, Robert F, 1993. "Common Trends and Common Cycles," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(4), pages 341-60, Oct.-Dec..
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