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Testing for Codependence of Non-Stationary Variables

Author

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  • Trenkler, Carsten
  • Weber, Enzo

Abstract

We analyze non-stationary time series that do not only trend together in the long run, but restore the equilibrium immediately in the period following a deviation. While this represents a common serial correlation feature, the framework is extended to codependence, allowing for delayed adjustment. We show which restrictions are implied for VECMs and lay out a likelihood ratio test. In addition, due to identification problems in codependent VECMs a GMM test approach is proposed. We apply the concept to US and European interest rate data, examining the capability of the Fed and ECB to control overnight money market rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Trenkler, Carsten & Weber, Enzo, 2010. "Testing for Codependence of Non-Stationary Variables," University of Regensburg Working Papers in Business, Economics and Management Information Systems 446, University of Regensburg, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:bay:rdwiwi:16478
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    File URL: https://epub.uni-regensburg.de/16478/1/CodependenceTesting.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Trenkler, Carsten & Weber, Enzo, 2012. "Identifying the Shocks behind Business Cycle Asynchrony in Euroland," Working Papers 12-11, University of Mannheim, Department of Economics.
    2. Carsten Trenkler & Enzo Weber, 2013. "Codependent VAR models and the pseudo-structural form," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 97(3), pages 287-295, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Serial correlation common features; codependence; cointegration; overnight interest rates; central banks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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