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Measuring the Sources of Cyclical Fluctuations in the G7 Economies

  • Centoni, Marco

    ()

  • Cubadda, Gianluca
  • Hecq, Alain

We analyze herein the importance of four types of shocks in contributing to the business cycles of the G7 economies. After disentangling the common permanent and transitory shocks in the G7 outputs, we identify the domestic and foreign components of such shocks for each country. This provides us with quite a flexible palette for understanding the degree of openness of the G7 countries, useful information for the analysis of the strengths and weaknesses of each national economy. Our empirical analysis reveals that the cycles of most of the G7 outputs are dominated by their domestic components and that the foreign components are almost entirely due to permanent shocks.

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Paper provided by University of Molise, Dept. EGSeI in its series Economics & Statistics Discussion Papers with number esdp06028.

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Length: 10 pages
Date of creation: 28 Apr 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:mol:ecsdps:esdp06028
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  1. Canova, Fabio & Marrinan, Jane, 1998. "Sources and propagation of international output cycles: Common shocks or transmission?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 133-166, October.
  2. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1997. "Is EMU more justifiable ex post than ex ante?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-5), pages 753-760, April.
  3. Centoni, Marco & Cubadda, Gianluca & Hecq, Alain, 2003. "Common Shocks, Common Dynamics, and the International Business Cycle," Economics & Statistics Discussion Papers esdp03007, University of Molise, Dept. EGSeI.
  4. Keller, Wolfgang, 2002. "International Technology Diffusion," CEPR Discussion Papers 3133, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Charles H. Whiteman, 2003. "International Business Cycles: World, Region, and Country-Specific Factors," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1216-1239, September.
  6. Allan W. Gregory & Allen C. Head & Jacques Raynauld, 1994. "Measuring World Business Cycles," Working Papers 902, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  7. Centoni, Marco & Cubadda, Gianluca, 2003. "Measuring the business cycle effects of permanent and transitory shocks in cointegrated time series," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 45-51, July.
  8. Bernard, A.B. & Durlauf, S.N., 1993. "Convergence in International Output," Working papers 93-7, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  9. Robert G. King & Charles I. Plosser & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1987. "Stochastic Trends and Economic Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 2229, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Engle, Robert F & Kozicki, Sharon, 1993. "Testing for Common Features: Reply," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(4), pages 393-95, October.
  11. Jonathan Eaton & Samuel Kortum, 2004. "Trade in Capital Goods," Levine's Working Paper Archive 228400000000000019, David K. Levine.
  12. Vahid, F & Engle, Robert F, 1993. "Common Trends and Common Cycles," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(4), pages 341-60, Oct.-Dec..
  13. Yin-Wong Cheung & Frank Westermann, 2002. "Output dynamics of the G7 countries--stochastic trends and cyclical movements," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(18), pages 2239-2247.
  14. Ahmed, Shaghil & Ickes, Barry W. & Ping Wang & Byung Sam Yoo, 1993. "International Business Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 335-59, June.
  15. Kwark, Noh-Sun, 1999. "Sources of international business fluctuations: Country-specific shocks or worldwide shocks?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 367-385, August.
  16. Dufourt, 2005. "Demand and productivity components of business cycles: Estimates and implications," Macroeconomics 0501013, EconWPA, revised 08 Sep 2005.
  17. Allan W. Gregory & Gregor W. Smith, 1995. "Business Cycle Theory and Econometrics," Working Papers 1254, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  18. Robert F. Engle & Sharon Kozicki, 1990. "Testing For Common Features," NBER Technical Working Papers 0091, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. Canova, Fabio & Dellas, Harris, 1993. "Trade interdependence and the international business cycle," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1-2), pages 23-47, February.
  20. Mellander, Erik & Vredin, A & Warne, A, 1992. "Stochastic Trends and Economic Fluctuations in a Small Open Economy," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(4), pages 369-94, Oct.-Dec..
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