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Government bond market dynamics and sovereign risk: systemic or idiosyncratic?

  • Bicu Andreea
  • Candelon Bertrand

    (METEOR)

This paper investigates the comovement of long-term government bond yields in the Eurozone. Themethods used for identifying common trends and common cycles are cointegration and SCCF (serialcorrelation common feature). These low and high frequency comovement analyses based on asymptoticcritical values fail to identify the almost perfect convergence of 10 year sovereign bond yields.After adjusting for heteroscedasticity we fi nd strong evidence for similar cyclical movements anda reduced number of "common cycles" for two separate groups (core and periphery). This confi rmsthe hypothesis that in the European EMU (Economic and Monetary Union) the perceived risk of memberstates has converged. Based on the explanatory power of common and idiosyncratic components, weobserve that sovereign yields are mainly driven by common risk factors and to a reduced degree bycountry specifi c characteristics. We investigate wether our results are a ffected by the recentsovereign debt crisis. With some notable exceptions, we find only small declines in theexplanatory power of the common component. In line with recent literature on increased generalrisk aversion during times of stress, some policy implications for the common currency area areformulated.

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Paper provided by Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR) in its series Research Memorandum with number 032.

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Date of creation: 2012
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Handle: RePEc:unm:umamet:2012032
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  1. Silvia Ardagna & Francesco Caselli & Timothy Lane, 2005. "Fiscal Discipline and the Cost of Public Debt Service: Some Estimates for OECD Countries," CEP Discussion Papers dp0670, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  2. Ehrmann, Michael & Fratzscher, Marcel & Gürkaynak, Refet S. & Swanson, Eric T, 2007. "Convergence and Anchoring of Yield Curves in the Euro Area," CEPR Discussion Papers 6456, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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  6. von Hagen, Jürgen & Schuknecht, Ludger & Wolswijk, Guido, 2011. "Government bond risk premiums in the EU revisited: The impact of the financial crisis," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 36-43, March.
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  8. Robert F. Engle & Sharon Kozicki, 1990. "Testing For Common Features," NBER Technical Working Papers 0091, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Hecq, Alain & Palm, Franz C. & Urbain, Jean-Pierre, 2006. "Common cyclical features analysis in VAR models with cointegration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 117-141, May.
  10. Centoni, Marco & Cubadda, Gianluca & Hecq, Alain, 2003. "Common Shocks, Common Dynamics, and the International Business Cycle," Economics & Statistics Discussion Papers esdp03007, University of Molise, Dept. EGSeI.
  11. Yin-Wong Cheung & Frank Westermann, 1999. "Output Dynamics of the G7 Countries - Stochastic Trends and Cyclical Movements," CESifo Working Paper Series 220, CESifo Group Munich.
  12. Candelon, Bertrand & Hecq, Alain & Verschoor, Willem F.C., 2005. "Measuring common cyclical features during financial turmoil: Evidence of interdependence not contagion," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(8), pages 1317-1334, December.
  13. Lindenberg, Nannette & Westermann, Frank, 2012. "Common trends and common cycles among interest rates of the G7-countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 1125-1140.
  14. Engle, Robert F & Kozicki, Sharon, 1993. "Testing for Common Features: Reply," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(4), pages 393-95, October.
  15. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
  16. Cavaliere, Giuseppe & Rahbek, Anders & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2010. "Cointegration Rank Testing Under Conditional Heteroskedasticity," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(06), pages 1719-1760, December.
  17. Beveridge, Stephen & Nelson, Charles R., 1981. "A new approach to decomposition of economic time series into permanent and transitory components with particular attention to measurement of the `business cycle'," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 151-174.
  18. Edda Zoli & Silvia Sgherri, 2009. "Euro Area Sovereign Risk During the Crisis," IMF Working Papers 09/222, International Monetary Fund.
  19. Gianluca Cubadda, 1999. "Common serial correlation and common business cycles: A cautious note," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 529-535.
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  21. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July.
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  23. Vahid, F & Engle, Robert F, 1993. "Common Trends and Common Cycles," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(4), pages 341-60, Oct.-Dec..
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