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Income Effects on the Trade Balance in the United States: Analysis by Sector


  • Miljkovic, Dragan
  • Paul, Rodney


This study examines the causes of the countercyclicality of the trade balance in the three major sectors of the U.S. economy: services, manufacturing, and agriculture. These results are compared with the results pertinent to the U.S. economy as a whole. At the macroscopic level, Sachs’ hypothesis seems to explain the countercyclicality of the trade balance, while results are mixed across individual sectors. The services sector may be explained by Sachs’ hypothesis, while results for the manufacturing sector are more consistent with the real business cycle hypothesis. The results for the agricultural sector, however, cannot be explained by either hypothesis.

Suggested Citation

  • Miljkovic, Dragan & Paul, Rodney, 2008. "Income Effects on the Trade Balance in the United States: Analysis by Sector," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 40(03), December.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:joaaec:47271

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Ahmed, Shaghil & Ickes, Barry W. & Ping Wang & Byung Sam Yoo, 1993. "International Business Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 335-359, June.
    2. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali, 1994. "Sources of real exchange rate fluctuations: how important are nominal shocks?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Apr.
    3. Ahmed, Shaghil & Park, Jae Ha, 1994. "Sources of macroeconomic fluctuations in small open economies," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 1-36.
    4. Marion, Nancy P., 1984. "Nontraded goods, oil price increases and the current account," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1-2), pages 29-44, February.
    5. Paul Krugman, 1996. "Domestic Distortions and the Deindustrialization Hypothesis," NBER Working Papers 5473, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    More about this item


    decomposition of variance; real business cycle; trade balance; Agribusiness; International Relations/Trade; F4; E32;

    JEL classification:

    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles


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