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Optimal Inflation Targeting: Further Developments of Inflation Targeting

  • Lars Svensson

The introduction of inflation targeting has led to major progress in practical monetary policy. Nevertheless, inflation-targeting central banks can make substantial additional progress by being more specific, systematic, and transparent about their operational objectives (in the form of using an explicit intertemporal loss function), their forecasts (in the form of deciding on optimal projections of the instrument rate and the target variables), and their communication (in the form of announcing optimal projections of the instrument rate and target variables). Furthermore, progress can be made by incorporating central-bank judgment and model uncertainty in a systematic way in the forecasting and decision process. In particular, incorporating model uncertainty allows the central bank to do more general “distribution forecast targeting” rather than the more restrictive “mean forecast targeting” under the assumption of approximate certainty equivalence.

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Paper provided by Central Bank of Chile in its series Working Papers Central Bank of Chile with number 403.

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Date of creation: Dec 2006
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Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:403
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  1. Svensson, Lars E O, 1999. " Inflation Targeting: Some Extensions," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 101(3), pages 337-61, September.
  2. Leitemo, Kai, 2003. " Targeting Inflation by Constant-Interest-Rate Forecasts," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(4), pages 609-26, August.
  3. Eric M. Leeper & Tao Zha, 1999. "Modest policy interventions," Working Paper 99-22, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  4. Francisco Javier Ruge-Murcia, 2001. "Inflation Targeting Under Asymmetric Preferences," IMF Working Papers 01/161, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Rachel Lomax, 2005. "Inflation Targeting in Practice: Models, Forecasts, and Hunches," Atlantic Economic Journal, International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 33(3), pages 251-265, September.
  6. Rodrigo Caputo & Felipe Liendo & Juan Pablo Medina, 2007. "New Keynesian Models for Chile in the Inflation-Targeting Period," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Frederic S. Miskin & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Se (ed.), Monetary Policy under Inflation Targeting, edition 1, volume 11, chapter 13, pages 507-546 Central Bank of Chile.
  7. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Lars E. O. Svensson, 1998. "Policy rules for inflation targeting," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
  8. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2005. "Monetary policy inertia: fact or fiction?," Working Paper Series 2005-19, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  9. Ben S. Bernanke & Michael Woodford, 1997. "Inflation Forecasts and Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 6157, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Nessen, Marianne & Vestin, David, 2005. "Average Inflation Targeting," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(5), pages 837-63, October.
  11. Eric Leeper, 2003. "An "Inflation Reports" Report," NBER Working Papers 10089, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Berg, Claes & Jansson, Per & Vredin, Anders, 2004. "How Useful are Simple Rules for Monetary Policy? The Swedish Experience," Working Paper Series 169, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  13. Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2002. "Social Value of Public Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1521-1534, December.
  14. Laurence H. Meyer, 2004. "Practical problems and obstacles to inflation targeting," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 151-160.
  15. Jansson, Per & Vredin, Anders, 2003. "Forecast-Based Monetary Policy: The Case of Sweden," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(3), pages 349-80, Winter.
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