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Taylor-type rules versus optimal policy in a Markov-switching economy

We analyse the effect of uncertainty concerning the state and the nature of asset price movements on the optimal monetary policy response. Uncertainty is modelled by adding Markov-switching shocks to a DSGE model with capital accumulation. In our analysis we consider both Taylor-type rules and optimal policy. Taylor rules have been shown to provide a good description of US monetary policy. Deviations from its implied interest rates have been associated with risks of financial disruptions. Whereas interest rates in Taylor-type rules respond to a small subset of information, optimal policy considers all state variables and shocks. Our results suggest that, when a bubble bursts, the Taylor rule fails to achieve a soft landing, contrary to the optimal policy.

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Paper provided by NIPE - Universidade do Minho in its series NIPE Working Papers with number 15/2008.

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Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:nip:nipewp:15/2008
Contact details of provider: Postal: Núcleo de Investigação em Políticas Económicas, Escola de Economia e Gestão, Universidade do Minho, P-4710-057 Braga, Portugal
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  1. Clarida, R. & Gali, J. & Gertler, M., 1998. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and some Theory," Working Papers 98-01, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  2. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2005. "Monetary policy inertia: fact or fiction?," Working Paper Series 2005-19, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  3. Dupor, Bill, 2005. "Stabilizing non-fundamental asset price movements under discretion and limited information," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(4), pages 727-747, May.
  4. Simon Gilchrist & Masashi Saito, 2006. "Expectations, Asset Prices, and Monetary Policy: The Role of Learning," NBER Working Papers 12442, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Ben Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1999. "Monetary policy and asset price volatility," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q IV, pages 17-51.
  6. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2007. "Housing and the Monetary Transmission Mechanism," NBER Working Papers 13518, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  8. Peter Isard & Douglas Laxton & Ann-Charlotte Eliasson, 1999. "Simple Monetary Policy Rules Under Model Uncertainty," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 841, Society for Computational Economics.
  9. Rudebusch, G.D. & Svensson, L.E.O., 1998. "Policy Rules for Inflation Targeting," Papers 637, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
  10. Levin, Andrew & Wieland, Volker & Williams, John C., 2003. "The performance of forecast-based monetary policy rules under model uncertainty," CFS Working Paper Series 2003/06, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  11. Lars E. O. Svensson, 2003. "What Is Wrong with Taylor Rules? Using Judgment in Monetary Policy through Targeting Rules," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(2), pages 426-477, June.
  12. Alexandre, Fernando & Bacao, Pedro, 2005. "Monetary policy, asset prices, and uncertainty," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 86(1), pages 37-42, January.
  13. Cecchetti, Stephen G & Lam, Pok-sang & Mark, Nelson C, 1990. "Mean Reversion in Equilibrium Asset Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 398-418, June.
  14. John B. Taylor, 2007. "The Explanatory Power of Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Working Papers 13685, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Anil K Kashyap, 1995. "International Cycles," NBER Working Papers 5310, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Andrew T.. Levin & Volker Wieland & John Williams, 1999. "Robustness of Simple Monetary Policy Rules under Model Uncertainty," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 263-318 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Michael Woodford, 2012. "Forecast Targeting as a Monetary Policy Strategy - Policy Rules in Practice," Book Chapters, in: Evan F. Koenig & Robert Leeson & George A. Kahn (ed.), The Taylor Rule and the Transformation of Monetary Policy, chapter 9 Hoover Institution, Stanford University.
  18. Fernando Alexandre & Pedro Bação & John Driffill, 2007. "Optimal monetary policy with a regime-switching exchange rate in a forward-looking model," NIPE Working Papers 26/2007, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
  19. Svensson, Lars E O & Williams, Noah, 2007. "Monetary Policy with Model Uncertainty: Distribution Forecast Targeting," CEPR Discussion Papers 6331, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  20. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2002. "Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why?," NBER Working Papers 9127, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  23. Alan Greenspan, 2004. "Risk and Uncertainty in Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(2), pages 33-40, May.
  24. Driffill, John & Sola, Martin, 1998. "Intrinsic bubbles and regime-switching," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 357-373, July.
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