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Soft landing in a Markov-switching economy

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  • Alexandre, Fernando
  • Bação, Pedro
  • Gabriel, Vasco

Abstract

We analyse the monetary policy implications of boom-bust cycles in asset prices using a Markov-switching rational expectations model. In our simulations, when a bubble bursts, the Taylor rule fails to achieve a soft landing, contrary to the optimal policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexandre, Fernando & Bação, Pedro & Gabriel, Vasco, 2010. "Soft landing in a Markov-switching economy," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 107(2), pages 169-172, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:107:y:2010:i:2:p:169-172
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lars Svensson & Noah Williams, 2005. "Monetary Policy with Model Uncertainty: Distribution Forecast Targeting," NBER Working Papers 11733, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Driffill, John & Sola, Martin, 1998. "Intrinsic bubbles and regime-switching," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 357-373, July.
    3. Fernando Alexandre & Pedro Bação & Vasco Gabriel, 2008. "Taylor-type rules versus optimal policy in a Markov-switching economy," GEMF Working Papers 2008-02, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.
    4. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2007. "Housing and the monetary transmission mechanism," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 359-413.
    5. Alan Greenspan, 2004. "Risk and Uncertainty in Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(2), pages 33-40, May.
    6. Michael Woodford, 2012. "Forecast Targeting as a Monetary Policy Strategy - Policy Rules in Practice," Book Chapters, in: Evan F. Koenig & Robert Leeson & George A. Kahn (ed.), The Taylor Rule and the Transformation of Monetary Policy, chapter 9, Hoover Institution, Stanford University.
    7. John B Taylor, 2007. "The Explanatory Power of Monetary Policy Rules," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 42(4), pages 8-15, October.
    8. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
    9. Dupor, Bill, 2005. "Stabilizing non-fundamental asset price movements under discretion and limited information," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(4), pages 727-747, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Fernando Alexandre & Pedro Bação & John Driffill, 2011. "Bubbles In Exchange Rates And Monetary Policy," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 58(1), pages 29-50, February.

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