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Inflation regimes and stabilisation policies: Spain 1962-2001

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Abstract

After reaching high levels in the 1970s and 1980s, inflation in Spain is significantly lower in the early 2000s. This paper estimates a switching-regime model for that variable. Our results point towards the existence of three regimes across which the average and the volatility of inflation are positively correlated. Major movements from high and volatile inflation to low and more stable inflation are identified around 1978, 1990 and 1995, when relevant economic policy decisions were made. Our empirical results also help to explain the relatively long-lived episodes of over and under prediction of Spanish inflation without requiring any sort of agents' irrationality. (Copyright: Fundación SEPI)

Suggested Citation

  • Juan Ayuso & Graciela L. Kaminsky & David López-Salido, 2003. "Inflation regimes and stabilisation policies: Spain 1962-2001," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 27(3), pages 615-631, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:iec:inveco:v:27:y:2003:i:3:p:615-631
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hansen, Bruce E, 1992. "The Likelihood Ratio Test under Nonstandard Conditions: Testing the Markov Switching Model of GNP," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(S), pages 61-82, Suppl. De.
    2. Evans, Martin & Wachtel, Paul, 1993. "Inflation Regimes and the," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 25(3), pages 475-511, August.
    3. Bidarkota, Prasad V, 2001. "Alternative Regime Switching Models for Forecasting Inflation," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(1), pages 21-35, January.
    4. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
    5. Nicholas Ricketts & David Rose, "undated". "Inflation, Learning And Monetary Policy Regimes In The G-7 Economies," Staff Working Papers 95-6, Bank of Canada.
    6. Dahl Christian M. & Hansen Niels L., 2001. "The Formation of Inflation Expectations under Changing Inflation Regimes," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 4(4), pages 1-31, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Amisano, Gianni & Fagan, Gabriel, 2013. "Money growth and inflation: A regime switching approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 118-145.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Switching-regime models; inflation expectations.;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General

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