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Detecting Switching Strategies in Equity Hedge Funds

Author Info

Listed author(s):
  • Carol Alexander

    ()

    (ICMA Centre, University of Reading)

  • Anca Dimitriu

    ()

    (ICMA Centre, University of Reading)

Abstract

Equity hedge funds are thought to effectively operate market timing by implementing switching strategies conditional on market circumstances. In this paper we use only the reported monthly returns on a set of funds to infer the type of switching strategies they follow, if any, as well as their switching times. A set of regime-switching models for each equity hedge funds’ returns against various benchmarks are estimated; subsequently we answer the following general questions: What proportion of equity funds seem to have switching strategies in place? Which are the most popular instruments for switching strategies? And what is the relationship between the switching times of different funds? The general methodology applied in this paper may be useful to investors that wish to detect, from only from their reported returns, whether and when a particular fund has been timing the market.

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Paper provided by Henley Business School, Reading University in its series ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance with number icma-dp2005-07.

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Length: 11 pages
Date of creation: Apr 2005
Publication status: Published in Journal of Alternative Investments 2005, 8:1, 7-13
Handle: RePEc:rdg:icmadp:icma-dp2005-07
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Phone: +44 (0) 118 378 8226
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Web page: http://www.henley.reading.ac.uk/

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  1. Clarida, Richard H. & Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P. & Valente, Giorgio, 2003. "The out-of-sample success of term structure models as exchange rate predictors: a step beyond," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 61-83, May.
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  4. Maheu, John M & McCurdy, Thomas H, 2000. "Identifying Bull and Bear Markets in Stock Returns," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(1), pages 100-112, January.
  5. Hamilton, James D & Gang, Lin, 1996. "Stock Market Volatility and the Business Cycle," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(5), pages 573-593, Sept.-Oct.
  6. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
  7. Robert F. Dittmar, 2002. "Nonlinear Pricing Kernels, Kurtosis Preference, and Evidence from the Cross Section of Equity Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(1), pages 369-403, 02.
  8. Hall, Stephen G & Psaradakis, Zacharias & Sola, Martin, 1999. "Detecting Periodically Collapsing Bubbles: A Markov-Switching Unit Root Test," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(2), pages 143-154, March-Apr.
  9. Fung, William & Hsieh, David A, 2001. "The Risk in Hedge Fund Strategies: Theory and Evidence from Trend Followers," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(2), pages 313-341.
  10. Bansal, Ravi & Hsieh, David A & Viswanathan, S, 1993. " A New Approach to International Arbitrage Pricing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1719-1747, December.
  11. Kim, Chang-Jin, 1994. "Dynamic linear models with Markov-switching," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 1-22.
  12. Psaradakis, Zacharias & Sola, Martin, 1998. "Finite-sample properties of the maximum likelihood estimator in autoregressive models with Markov switching," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 369-386, June.
  13. Campbell R. Harvey & Akhtar Siddique, 2000. "Conditional Skewness in Asset Pricing Tests," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(3), pages 1263-1295, 06.
  14. Carol Alexander & Anca Dimitriu, 2005. "Indexing, cointegration and equity market regimes," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(3), pages 213-231.
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Cited by:

  1. Anastasios G. Malliaris, 2011. "Dividends, Momentum, and Macroeconomic Variables as Determinants of the US Equity Premium Across Economic Regimes," Review of Behavioral Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 3(1), pages 27-53, April.
  2. Giamouridis, Daniel & Vrontos, Ioannis D., 2007. "Hedge fund portfolio construction: A comparison of static and dynamic approaches," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 199-217, January.
  3. Johannes Hauptmann & Anja Hoppenkamps & Aleksey Min & Franz Ramsauer & Rudi Zagst, 2014. "Forecasting market turbulence using regime-switching models," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 28(2), pages 139-164, May.
  4. Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Bhar, Ramaprasad & Thompson, Mark A., 2010. "Re-examining the dynamic causal oil-macroeconomy relationship," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 298-305, September.

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