Investigating M3 Money Demand in the Euro Area: New Evidence Based on Standard Models
Monetary growth in the euro area has exceeded its target level especially since 2001. Likewise, recent empirical studies did not find evidence in favour of a stable long run relationship between the variables entering the money demand function. Instead the equation appears to be increasingly unstable if more recent data are included. Since the link between money balances and macroeconomic variables seems to has become rather fragile, these results put serious doubts concerning the rationale of monetary aggregates in the monetary policy strategy of the ECB. However, if the analysis is done without imposing a short run homogeneity restriction between money and prices, a stable long run money demand relationship can be identified, where recursively estimated parameters are almost stable. In addition, the corresponding error correction model survives a wide array of specification tests, including procedures for nonlinearities and parameter instability. Hence, the apparent monetary overhang is in line with standard models of money demand behaviour, and is not expected to lead to a rise in inflation.
|Date of creation:||2006|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Mohrenstraße 58, D-10117 Berlin|
Web page: http://www.diw.de/en
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Gerlach, Stefan & Svensson, Lars E. O., 2003.
"Money and inflation in the euro area: A case for monetary indicators?,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 50(8), pages 1649-1672, November.
- Gerlach, Stefan & Svensson, Lars E O, 2002. "Money and Inflation in the Euro-Area: A Case for Monetary Indicators?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3392, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Stefan Gerlach & Lars E.O. Svensson, 2000. "Money and Inflation in the Euro Area: A Case for Monetary Indicators?," NBER Working Papers 8025, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Lars E.O. Svensson & Stefan Gerlach, 2001. "Money and inflation in the Euro Area: A case for monetary indicators?," BIS Working Papers 98, Bank for International Settlements.
- Coenen, Günter & Vega, Juan Luis, 1999.
"The demand for M3 in the euro area,"
Working Paper Series
0006, European Central Bank.
- Gunter Coenen & Juan Luis Vega, 2000. "The Demand for M3 in the Euro Area," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0976, Econometric Society.
- Lutkepohl, Helmut & Terasvirta, Timo & Wolters, Jurgen, 1999.
"Investigating Stability and Linearity of a German M1 Money Demand Function,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(5), pages 511-25, Sept.-Oct.
- Lütkepohl, Helmut & Teräsvirta, Timo & Wolters, Jürgen, 1995. "Investigating Stability and Linearity of a German M1 Money Demand Function," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 64, Stockholm School of Economics.
- H. Lütkepohl & T. Teräsvirta & J. Wolters, 1995. "Investigating Stability and Linearity of a German M1 Money Demand Function," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 1995,57, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
- Gabriel Fagan & JÊrÆme Henry, 1998. "Long run money demand in the EU: Evidence for area-wide aggregates," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 483-506.
- Neumann, Manfred J. M. & Greiber, Claus, 2004. "Inflation and core money growth in the euro area," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,36, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
- Jürgen Wolters & Timo Teräsvirta & Helmut Lütkepohl, 1998.
"Modeling The Demand For M3 In The Unified Germany,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 80(3), pages 399-409, August.
- J. Wolters & T. Teräsvirta & H. Lütkepohl, 1996. "Modelling the Demand for M3 in the Unified Germany," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 1996,24, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
- Wolters, Jürgen & Teräsvirta, Timo & Lütkepohl, Helmut, 1996. "Modelling the Demand for M3 in the unified Germany," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 113, Stockholm School of Economics.
- Stefan Gerlach, 2004. "The two pillars of the European Central Bank," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 19(40), pages 389-439, October.
- Michael Funke, 2001.
"Money Demand in Euroland,"
Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers
20112, Hamburg University, Department of Economics.
- Mackinnon, J.G. & Haug, A.A. & Michelis, L., 1996.
"Numerical Distribution Functions of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegration,"
96a09, Universite Aix-Marseille III.
- MacKinnon, James G & Haug, Alfred A & Michelis, Leo, 1999. "Numerical Distribution Functions of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegration," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(5), pages 563-77, Sept.-Oct.
- James G. MacKinnon & Alfred A. Haug & Leo Michelis, 1996. "Numerical Distribution Functions of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegration," Working Papers 1996_07, York University, Department of Economics.
- Hwang, Hae-shin, 1985. "Test of the Adjustment Process and Linear Homogeneity in a Stock Adjustment Model of Money Demand," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(4), pages 689-92, November.
- Lemke, Wolfgang & Greiber, Claus, 2005. "Money demand and macroeconomic uncertainty," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,26, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
- Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501, May.
- Mike Artis & Andreas Beyer, 2004. "Issues in Money Demand: The Case of Europe," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(4), pages 717-736, November.
- Carstensen, Kai, 2004.
"Is European Money Demand Still Stable?,"
Kiel Working Papers
1179, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
- L Tkepohl, Helmut & Wolters, J Rgen, 2003. "Transmission Of German Monetary Policy In The Pre-Euro Period," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(05), pages 711-733, November.
- Oliver Holtemöller, 2004. "A monetary vector error correction model of the Euro area and implications for monetary policy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 29(3), pages 553-574, 09.
- Bosker, E.M., 2006. "On the aggregation of eurozone data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 260-265, February.
- Zenon Kontolemis, 2002. "Money Demand in the Euro Area; Where Do We Stand (Today)?," IMF Working Papers 02/185, International Monetary Fund.
- Claus Brand & Nuno Cassola, 2004. "A money demand system for euro area M3," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(8), pages 817-838.
- Warne, Anders & Bruggeman, Annick & Donati, Paola, 2003. "Is the demand for euro area M3 stable?," Working Paper Series 0255, European Central Bank.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp561. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Bibliothek)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.