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Recessions and Instable Estimates of Potential Output

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  • Dovern, Jonas

Abstract

This paper analyzes how the OECD revises potential output (PO) estimates after recessions. We show that downward revisions are substantial and mostly driven by supply shocks while PO estimates do not significantly react to demand shocks. In addition, revisions are partly caused by avoidable mismeasurement of PO before recessions. In particular, we show that the length of the preceding boom and pre-recession values of the current account balance and credit volumes are predictors of post-recession PO revisions. Our results call for improved methods for estimating PO and provide evidence against the existence of substantial hysteresis effects of demand shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Dovern, Jonas, 2017. "Recessions and Instable Estimates of Potential Output," Working Papers 0639, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:awi:wpaper:0639
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Laurence Ball, 2014. "Long-term damage from the Great Recession in OECD countries," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 11(2), pages 149-160, September.
    2. Alan J. Auerbach & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2013. "Corrigendum: Measuring the Output Responses to Fiscal Policy," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 5(3), pages 320-322, August.
    3. Joshua Aizenman & Menzie David Chinn & Hiro Ito, 2013. "The “Impossible Trinity” Hypothesis in an Era of Global Imbalances: Measurement and Testing," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(3), pages 447-458, August.
    4. Mr. Abdul d Abiad & Ms. Petya Koeva Brooks & Ms. Irina Tytell & Mr. Daniel Leigh & Mr. Ravi Balakrishnan, 2009. "What’s the Damage? Medium-term Output Dynamics After Banking Crises," IMF Working Papers 2009/245, International Monetary Fund.
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    2. Ademmer, Martin & Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Carstensen, Kai & Hauber, Philipp & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Rossian, Thies & Stolzenburg, Ulrich, 2019. "Schätzung von Produktionspotenzial und -lücke: Eine Analyse des EU-Verfahrens und mögliche Verbesserungen," Kieler Beiträge zur Wirtschaftspolitik 19, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    3. Fiedler, Salomon & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Jannsen, Nils & Wolters, Maik H., 2019. "Growth prospects, the natural interest rate, and monetary policy," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy, vol. 13, pages 1-34.
    4. Croushore, Dean & van Norden, Simon, 2019. "Fiscal Surprises at the FOMC," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1583-1595.

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