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The OECD potential output estimation methodology

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  • Thomas Chalaux
  • Yvan Guillemette

Abstract

This paper describes the methodology used in the OECD Economics Department to produce historical estimates and short-run projections of potential output. These estimates are used mainly in the OECD Economic Outlook, in country surveys and as starting point for long-run scenarios. Total-economy potential output is modelled using a constant-returns-to-scale Cobb-Douglas production function with fixed factor shares. The three main inputs are labour, fixed capital excluding housing and labour efficiency, the latter obtained as a decomposition residual. The trend unemployment rate is estimated by Kalman filtering within a forward-looking Phillips curve. Other trend components are obtained by HP-filtering but labour efficiency and the labour force participation rate are cyclically adjusted before filtering to help alleviate the end-point problem associated with filters. This pre-filtering cyclical adjustment is especially helpful at cyclical turning points. It helps to lower the cyclicality of potential output as well as the extent of future revisions.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas Chalaux & Yvan Guillemette, 2019. "The OECD potential output estimation methodology," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1563, OECD Publishing.
    • Handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:1563-en
    DOI: 10.1787/4357c723-en
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    Cited by:

    1. ., Kaustubh & Gopalakrishnan, Pawan Gopalakrishnan & Ranjan, Abhishek Ranjan, 2025. "Estimating the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) with Fat-tailed Events," MPRA Paper 126329, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. González-Torres Fernández, Guzmán & Gumiel, José Emilio & Szörfi, Béla, 2024. "Potential output in times of temporary supply shocks," Economic Bulletin Boxes, European Central Bank, vol. 8.
    3. Brand, Claus & Obstbaum, Meri & Coenen, Günter & Sondermann, David & Lydon, Reamonn & Ajevskis, Viktors & Hammermann, Felix & Angino, Siria & Hernborg, Nils & Basso, Henrique & Hertweck, Matthias & Bi, 2021. "Employment and the conduct of monetary policy in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 275, European Central Bank.
    4. Błażej, Mirosław & Górajski, Mariusz & Ulrichs, Magdalena, 2025. "Microdata-based output gap estimation using business tendency surveys," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    5. M. Ayhan Kose & Franziska Ohnsorge, 2023. "Slowing Growth: More Than a Rough Patch," CAMA Working Papers 2023-23, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    6. Davide Fantino & Sara Formai & Alessandro Mistretta, 2021. "Firm characteristics and potential output: a growth accounting approach," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 616, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    7. Michael Donadelli & Antonio Paradiso, 2026. "The economic impact of pandemics and wars in pre-modern Western Europe: A supply-side perspective," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 36(1), pages 1-46, April.
    8. Fatás, Antonio & Singh, Sanjay R., 2024. "Supply or demand? Policy makers’ confusion in the presence of hysteresis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    9. Giovanni Carnazza & Emilio Carnevali & Matteo Sommacal, 2024. "The Role of Endogenous NAWRU in Reducing the "Space of Forgiveness": a Theoretical and Empirical Appraisal of the European Fiscal Framework," Discussion Papers 2024/316, Dipartimento di Economia e Management (DEM), University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy.
    10. Adolfo Rodríguez-Vargas, 2022. "Estimation of Potential Output for Costa Rica. 1995-2021," Notas Técnicas 2203, Banco Central de Costa Rica.
    11. Federico Bassi, 2020. "Chronic Excess Capacity and Unemployment Hysteresis in EU Countries. A Structural Approach," DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza def091, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    12. Bassi, Federico, 2024. "Excess capacity and hysteresis in EU Countries. A structural approach," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 116-134.
    13. S. N. Alpysbaeva & Sh. Zh. Shuneev & N. N. Zhanakova & A. A. Bakdolotov, 2021. "Potential GDP Modeling and Output Gap Estimation as a Basis for Countercyclical Fiscal Policy in Kazakhstan," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 32(4), pages 445-453, July.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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