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Potential GDP Modeling and Output Gap Estimation as a Basis for Countercyclical Fiscal Policy in Kazakhstan

Author

Listed:
  • S. N. Alpysbaeva

    (Economic Research Institute)

  • Sh. Zh. Shuneev

    (Economic Research Institute)

  • N. N. Zhanakova

    (Economic Research Institute)

  • A. A. Bakdolotov

    (Economic Research Institute)

Abstract

This paper identifies key risks of the public sector in Kazakhstan. Methods for modeling potential output and output gap in international research practice and their application in countercyclical fiscal policy are considered. The potential output of Kazakhstan is retrospectively analyzed using the Hodrick–Prescott (HP) filter. Periods of the procyclical budgetary policy are identified. It is proposed to introduce a fiscal model of the structural budget balance, to target a zero output gap in the short term, and to increase the potential output through structural reforms.

Suggested Citation

  • S. N. Alpysbaeva & Sh. Zh. Shuneev & N. N. Zhanakova & A. A. Bakdolotov, 2021. "Potential GDP Modeling and Output Gap Estimation as a Basis for Countercyclical Fiscal Policy in Kazakhstan," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 32(4), pages 445-453, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:sorede:v:32:y:2021:i:4:d:10.1134_s1075700721040031
    DOI: 10.1134/S1075700721040031
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    References listed on IDEAS

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