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Structural Budget Balances in Oil-Rich Countries: The Cases of Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Russia


  • Vugar Ahmadov

    (Central Bank of the Republic of Azerbaijan)

  • Ulvi Sarkarli

    (Central Bank of the Republic of Azerbaijan)

  • Ramiz Rahmanov

    (Central Bank of the Republic of Azerbaijan)


This study aims to analyse the discretionary fiscal policy of Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Russia for the period 2003-2015 using the structural budget balance (SBB). The SBB considers the permanent component of oil revenue and therefore clearly defines the discretionary fiscal position and the aggregate demand effect of fiscal policy. The SBBs in Azerbaijan and Russia experience a deficit for most of the analysed period. A moderate SBB surplus is observed in Kazakhstan. The estimated SBBs also demonstrate that fiscal policies tend to be mainly pro-cyclical in Kazakhstan and Russia. Azerbaijan conducted a counter-cyclical fiscal policy for half of the investigated period. Moreover, governments placed more importance on economic stabilization in 2009 due to the global financial crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Vugar Ahmadov & Ulvi Sarkarli & Ramiz Rahmanov, 2018. "Structural Budget Balances in Oil-Rich Countries: The Cases of Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Russia," IHEID Working Papers 01-2018, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
  • Handle: RePEc:gii:giihei:heidwp01-2018

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. S. N. Alpysbaeva & Sh. Zh. Shuneev & N. N. Zhanakova & A. A. Bakdolotov, 2021. "Potential GDP Modeling and Output Gap Estimation as a Basis for Countercyclical Fiscal Policy in Kazakhstan," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 32(4), pages 445-453, July.

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    More about this item


    fiscal policy; structural budget balance; oil-rich countries; Azerbaijan; Kazakhstan; Russia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General

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