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The European Commission’s New NAIRU: Does it Deliver?

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Listed:
  • Sebastian Gechert
  • Katja Rietzler
  • Silke Tober

Abstract

The NAIRU is a key component of potential output and as such critically affects output gap estimates. In May 2014, the European Commission changed its specification of the NAIRU for several countries and lowered its NAIRU estimates – in the case of Spain from 26.6% to 20.7% for 2015. To test the dependence of the new NAIRU on unemployment versus structural factors, we run counterfactual simulations applying one-standard deviation shocks to actual unemployment and to the structural variable – real unit labor costs. We find that the NAIRU in its new specification is still largely determined by actual unemployment. This calls in question both the interpretation of potential output estimates as barriers to more vigorous inflation-stable economic activity and the accuracy of structural deficit figures.

Suggested Citation

  • Sebastian Gechert & Katja Rietzler & Silke Tober, 2014. "The European Commission’s New NAIRU: Does it Deliver?," IMK Working Paper 142-2014, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:imk:wpaper:142-2014
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Daniel Kienzler & Kai D. Schmid, 2014. "Hysteresis in Potential Output and Monetary Policy," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 61(4), pages 371-396, September.
    2. Francesca D'Auria & Cécile Denis & Karel Havik & Kieran Mc Morrow & Christophe Planas & Rafal Raciborski & Werner Roger & Alessandro Rossi, 2010. "The production function methodology for calculating potential growth rates and output gaps," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 420, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    3. Laurence Ball, 2014. "Long-term damage from the Great Recession in OECD countries," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 11(2), pages 149-160, September.
    4. Karel Havik & Kieran Mc Morrow & Fabrice Orlandi & Christophe Planas & Rafal Raciborski & Werner Roeger & Alessandro Rossi & Anna Thum-Thysen & Valerie Vandermeulen, 2014. "The Production Function Methodology for Calculating Potential Growth Rates & Output Gaps," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 535, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
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    1. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/4s2r6d8kua98d9veu2un1vm9vh is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Xavier Timbeau, 2015. "A diverging Europe on the edge. The independent Annual Growth Survey 2015," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03620048, HAL.
    3. Sebastian Gechert & Ansgar Rannenberg, 2015. "The Costs of Greece's Fiscal Consolidation," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 84(3), pages 47-59.
    4. M. Deroose & A. Rannenberg & J. Wauters, 2019. "Separating the trend from the cycle : The debate on euro area potential output and implications for monetary policy," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue ii, pages 7-28, September.
    5. Alessandro Cianci, 2016. "Disoccupazione strutturale in Italia e regole europee di bilancio," a/ Working Papers Series 1601, Italian Association for the Study of Economic Asymmetries, Rome (Italy).
    6. Fabrice Orlandi & Werner Roeger & Anna Thum-Thysen, 2018. "The Return of the European Wage Phillips Curve," European Economy - Discussion Papers 085, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    7. Silke Tober, 2015. "Monetary Financing in the Euro Area: A Free Lunch?," IMK Working Paper 152-2015, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    NAIRU; Kalman filter; output gap; euro area; structural deficit;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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