Traditional versus New Keynesian Phillips Curves: Evidence from Output Effects
We identify a crucial difference between the backwardlooking and forward-looking Phillips curve concerning the real output effects of monetary policy shocks. The backwardlooking Phillips curve predicts a strict intertemporal trade-off in the case of monetary shocks: a positive short-run response of output is followed by a period in which output is below baseline and the cumulative output effect is exactly zero. In contrast, the forward-looking model implies a positive cumulative output effect. The empirical evidence on the cumulated output effects of money is consistent with the forward-looking model. We also use this method to determine the degree of forward-looking price setting. JEL Codes
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Taylor, John B, 1979. "Staggered Wage Setting in a Macro Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(2), pages 108-113, May.
- Rotemberg, Julio J, 1982. "Sticky Prices in the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(6), pages 1187-1211, December.
- Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
- McCallum, Bennett T., 1997.
"Crucial issues concerning central bank independence,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 99-112, June.
- Bennett T. McCallum, 1996. "Crucial Issues Concerning Central Bank Independence," NBER Working Papers 5597, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Peter McAdam & Alpo Willman, 2004. "Supply, Factor Shares and Inflation Persistence: Re-examining Euro-area New-Keynesian Phillips Curves," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 66(s1), pages 637-670, September.