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Traditional versus New Keynesian Phillips Curves: Evidence from Output Effects

Author

Listed:
  • Werner Roeger

    (European Commission)

  • Bernhard Herz

    (University of Bayreuth)

Abstract

We identify a crucial difference between the backwardlooking and forward-looking Phillips curve concerning the real output effects of monetary policy shocks. The backwardlooking Phillips curve predicts a strict intertemporal trade-off in the case of monetary shocks: a positive short-run response of output is followed by a period in which output is below baseline and the cumulative output effect is exactly zero. In contrast, the forward-looking model implies a positive cumulative output effect. The empirical evidence on the cumulated output effects of money is consistent with the forward-looking model. We also use this method to determine the degree of forward-looking price setting. JEL Codes

Suggested Citation

  • Werner Roeger & Bernhard Herz, 2012. "Traditional versus New Keynesian Phillips Curves: Evidence from Output Effects," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 8(1), pages 87-109, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:ijc:ijcjou:y:2012:q:2:a:3
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Taylor, John B, 1979. "Staggered Wage Setting in a Macro Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(2), pages 108-113, May.
    2. Rotemberg, Julio J, 1982. "Sticky Prices in the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(6), pages 1187-1211, December.
    3. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
    4. McCallum, Bennett T., 1997. "Crucial issues concerning central bank independence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 99-112, June.
    5. Peter McAdam & Alpo Willman, 2004. "Supply, Factor Shares and Inflation Persistence: Re-examining Euro-area New-Keynesian Phillips Curves," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 66(s1), pages 637-670, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Binder, Carola Conces, 2015. "Whose expectations augment the Phillips curve?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 35-38.
    2. Dobrescu, Emilian, 2006. "Macromodel of the Romanian market economy (version 2005)," MPRA Paper 35749, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Emilian Dobrescu, "undated". "Integration of Macroeconomic Behavioural Relationships and the Input-output Block (Romanian Modelling Experience)," EcoMod2006 272100018, EcoMod.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General

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