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Updating the Romanian Economic Macromodel

Author

Listed:
  • Emilian Dobrescu

    (Centre for Macroeconomic Modelling, NIER, Romanian Academy)

Abstract

The paper describes the version (2012) of the Romanian economic macromodel2. The model has been constructed taking into account the important consequences induced by the integration of the country into the European Union and by the world crisis. Some supplementary requests of the government agencies which use this forecasting tool were also included. The first chapter presents the general architecture of this version. As an applicative exercise, the second chapter estimates the preliminary indicators for 2013 and comments several predictive simulations for the next year. Some concluding remarks close our presentation.

Suggested Citation

  • Emilian Dobrescu, 2013. "Updating the Romanian Economic Macromodel," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 5-31, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2013:i:4:p:5-31
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    File URL: http://www.ipe.ro/rjef/rjef4_13/rjef4_2013p5-31.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stephan B. Bruns, Christian Gross and David I. Stern, 2014. "Is There Really Granger Causality Between Energy Use and Output?," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4).
    2. David I. Stern and Astrid Kander, 2012. "The Role of Energy in the Industrial Revolution and Modern Economic Growth," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3).
    3. Francesca D'Auria & Cécile Denis & Karel Havik & Kieran Mc Morrow & Christophe Planas & Rafal Raciborski & Werner Roger & Alessandro Rossi, 2010. "The production function methodology for calculating potential growth rates and output gaps," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 420, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    4. Emilian Dobrescu, 2011. "Some Issues Involved by the Policies Concerning Exchange Rate and Inflation. Quantitative Approach," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 13(29), pages 250-257, February.
    5. Dobrescu, Emilian, 2006. "Macromodel of the Romanian market economy (version 2005)," MPRA Paper 35749, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Emilian Dobrescu, 2015. "Net Indirect Taxes and Sectoral Structure of Economy," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 5-29, June.
    2. Mihaela Simionescu (Bratu), 2014. "The Performance of Predictions Based on the Dobrescu Macromodel for the Romanian Economy," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 179-195, October.
    3. Mihaela Simionescu, 2014. "Forecast Intervals for Inflation Rate and Unemployment Rate in Romania," Acta Universitatis Danubius. OEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 10(5), pages 39-51, October.
    4. Emilian Dobrescu, 2014. "Attempting to Quantify the Accuracy of Complex Macroeconomic Forecasts," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 5-21, December.
    5. Mihaela SIMIONESCU, 2015. "The Accuracy Of General Government Balance Forecasts In Romania," CES Working Papers, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 7(1), pages 167-178, March.
    6. Emilian DOBRESCU, 2018. "A New Version (2018) of the Romanian Macromodel - Aggregate System," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 5-20, December.
    7. Emilian Dobrescu, 2015. "Comparative Price Level (Cpl) – A Representative Parameter of Economic Convergence," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 7-28, December.
    8. Mihaela Simionescu, 2014. "Directional accuracy for inflation and unemployment rate predictions in Romania," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), Democritus University of Thrace (DUTH), Kavala Campus, Greece, vol. 7(2), pages 129-138, September.
    9. Emilian Dobrescu, 2015. "BARS curve in Romanian economy," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 17(39), pages 693-693, May.
    10. Emilian DOBRESCU, 2017. "Modelling an Emergent Economy and Parameter Instability Problem," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 5-28, June.
    11. Ana CARP & Diana Valentina DUMITRESCU & Doina AVRAM & Doina BUREA, 2017. "Theoretical aspects regarding macroeconomic accounts – contents and structure," Romanian Statistical Review Supplement, Romanian Statistical Review, vol. 65(1), pages 132-141, January.
    12. Mirela PANAIT & Andreea – Ioana Marinescu, 2016. "Statistical-econometric model used for the analysis of the correlation between the Gross Domestic Product and the Labour Productivity," Romanian Statistical Review Supplement, Romanian Statistical Review, vol. 64(11), pages 180-187, November.
    13. Emilian DOBRESCU, 2019. "The New Version (2018) of the Romanian Macromodel - The Sectoral Module," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 5-31, June.
    14. Dan CRUCERU & Madalina Gabriela ANGHEL & Aurelian DIACONU, 2016. "The multiple linear regression used to analyse the correlation between variables," Romanian Statistical Review Supplement, Romanian Statistical Review, vol. 64(10), pages 114-117, October.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    macromodel; simulations; scenarios;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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