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The New Version (2018) of the Romanian Macromodel - The Sectoral Module

Author

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  • Emilian DOBRESCU

    (Centre for Macroeconomic Modelling, NIER, Romanian Academy)

Abstract

The paper presents the sectoral block of the 2018 Version of the Romanian macromodel. Similarly to the previous one, this one orbits around the input-output tables. The method of estimating the A matrix in two phases is employed, as follows: a) econometric determination of its row and column sums by longest stable VAR procedure, and b) application of the RAS method for defining the complete matrix of technical coefficients. The paper also describes the algorithm of estimating the sectoral structure of the economy by a system of equations that involves three categories of exogenous variables: i) the gross value added as a macroeconomic indicator; ii) the A matrix; and iii) the econometric approximation of the final output sectoral distribution. The adopted conceptual and computational hypotheses are tested on the yearly I-O tables of Romania for 1989-2016. Experimentally, a projected sectoral structure of the Romanian economy for the 2017-2020 period is presented.

Suggested Citation

  • Emilian DOBRESCU, 2019. "The New Version (2018) of the Romanian Macromodel - The Sectoral Module," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 5-31, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2019:i:2:p:5-31
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    File URL: http://www.ipe.ro/rjef/rjef2_19/rjef2_2019p5-31.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Emilian DOBRESCU, 2018. "A New Version (2018) of the Romanian Macromodel - Aggregate System," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 5-20, December.
    2. Emilian Dobrescu, 2006. "Integration of Macroeconomic Behavioural Relationships and the Input-output Block (Romanian Modelling Experience)," EcoMod2006 272100018, EcoMod.
    3. Emilian Dobrescu, 2013. "Updating the Romanian Economic Macromodel," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 5-31, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Emilian DOBRESCU, 2020. "Self-fulfillment degree of economic expectations within an integrated space: The European Union case study," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 5-32, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    input-output analysis; A matrix; sectoral structure; VAR;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C67 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Input-Output Models
    • C82 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data; Data Access

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