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Modelling the Sectoral Structure of the Final Output

Author

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  • Dobrescu, Emilian

    (Centre for Macroeconomic Modelling, National Institute of Economic Research. Romanian Academy.)

Abstract

This paper examines the modelling complications that appear when some macroeconomic behavioral relationships interact with structural variables, even under a given A matrix. The main problem is related to the situation when: a) the final consumption, gross fixed capital formation, inventory changes, export, import (all of them at market prices), and gross value added (at production prices) are estimated as macro-indicators; and b) the output (at production prices) is determined at a disaggregated level. The so-called demand-side or supply-side approaches are possible; here, the supply-side approach is in focus. With such a goal, the regression and linear weighted average (in the Fisher version) techniques are discussed as the main tools for estimating sectoral weights of the final output. For the linear weighted average method, the paper sketches – as a discussion proposal – a methodology for the optimal selection of the length (number of terms) of the moving average. As a primary database, the Romanian input-output tables for 1989–2009, aggregated into 10 sectors, were used

Suggested Citation

  • Dobrescu, Emilian, 2013. "Modelling the Sectoral Structure of the Final Output," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 59-89, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2013:i:3:p:59-89
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Emilian Dobrescu, 2006. "Integration of Macroeconomic Behavioural Relationships and the Input-output Block (Romanian Modelling Experience)," EcoMod2006 272100018, EcoMod.
    2. Miller,Ronald E. & Blair,Peter D., 2009. "Input-Output Analysis," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521517133.
    3. Dobrescu, Emilian & Gaftea, Viorel & Scutaru, Cornelia, 2010. "Using the Leontief Matrix to Estimate the Impact of Investments upon the Global Output," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 176-187, July.
    4. Miller,Ronald E. & Blair,Peter D., 2009. "Input-Output Analysis," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521739023.
    5. Dobrescu, Emilian, 2009. "Measuring the Interaction of Structural Changes with Inflation," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 6(5), pages 5-99.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Emilian Dobrescu, 2015. "Net Indirect Taxes and Sectoral Structure of Economy," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 5-29, June.
    2. Emilian Dobrescu, 2014. "A Hybrid Forecasting Approach," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 16(35), pages 390-390, February.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    final output; sectoral structure; regression; moving average;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C36 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation
    • C43 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Index Numbers and Aggregation
    • C67 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Input-Output Models

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