IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/aes/amfeco/v1y2014i35p390.html

A Hybrid Forecasting Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Emilian Dobrescu

    (Center of Macroeconomic Modelling, Romanian Academy)

Abstract

The objective of the paper is to establish the appropriateness of integrating in predictive simulation an econometric estimation of a given variable into a standard moving average process (a linear algorithm with constant positive weights of distributed lags). The empirical search relates to the Romanian input-output tables collapsed into ten sectors. The database concerning the final output during 1989-2009 years is herein analyzed

Suggested Citation

  • Emilian Dobrescu, 2014. "A Hybrid Forecasting Approach," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 16(35), pages 390-390, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:aes:amfeco:v:1:y:2014:i:35:p:390
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.amfiteatrueconomic.ro/temp/Article_1273.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gregory, Allan W & Smith, Gregor W & Yetman, James, 2001. "Testing for Forecast Consensus," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(1), pages 34-43, January.
    2. Dobrescu, Emilian, 2013. "Modelling the Sectoral Structure of the Final Output," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 59-89, October.
    3. David C. Schirm, 2003. "A Comparative Analysis of the Rationality of Consensus Forecasts of U.S. Economic Indicators," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 76(4), pages 547-562, October.
    4. Mariola Pilatowska, 2009. "The Combined Forecasts Using the Akaike Weights," Dynamic Econometric Models, Uniwersytet Mikolaja Kopernika, vol. 9, pages 5-16.
    5. Miller,Ronald E. & Blair,Peter D., 2009. "Input-Output Analysis," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521517133.
    6. Gary Koop & Dimitris Korobilis, 2012. "Forecasting Inflation Using Dynamic Model Averaging," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 53(3), pages 867-886, August.
    7. Ravazzolo, F. & van Dijk, H.K. & Verbeek, M.J.C.M., 2007. "Predictive gains from forecast combinations using time-varying model weights," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2007-26, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    8. Robert L. Winkler & Robert T. Clemen, 1992. "Sensitivity of Weights in Combining Forecasts," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 40(3), pages 609-614, June.
    9. Miller,Ronald E. & Blair,Peter D., 2009. "Input-Output Analysis," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521739023.
    10. Rodrigues, Bruno Dore & Stevenson, Maxwell J., 2013. "Takeover prediction using forecast combinations," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 628-641.
    11. Ager, P. & Kappler, M. & Osterloh, S., 2009. "The accuracy and efficiency of the Consensus Forecasts: A further application and extension of the pooled approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 167-181.
    12. Emilian Dobrescu & Viorel Gaftea, 2012. "On the Accuracy of RAS Method in an Emergent Economy," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 14(32), pages 502-521, June.
    13. Gregory, Allan W. & Yetman, James, 2004. "The evolution of consensus in macroeconomic forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 461-473.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Herwig Immervoll & Cathal O’Donoghue & Jules Linden & Denisa Sologon, 2023. "Who pays for higher carbon prices?: Illustration for Lithuania and a research agenda," OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers 283, OECD Publishing.
    2. Eduardo Haddad & Juan Manuel Samaniego & Alexandre Porsse & Santiago Ochoa & Luiz Gustavo Souza, 2011. "Interregional Interdependence among Ecuadorian Provinces: An Input-Output Analysis," ERSA conference papers ersa11p836, European Regional Science Association.
    3. Guilhoto, Joaquim José Martins & Polenske, Karen Rosel & Liu, Hongtao, 2010. "China and Brazil Productive Structure and Economic Growth Compared: 1980’s to 2000’s," MPRA Paper 30123, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Guilhoto, Joaquim José Martins, 2011. "Análise de Insumo-Produto: Teoria e Fundamentos [Input-Output Analysis: Theory and Foundations]," MPRA Paper 32566, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Lilian Albornoz & Hilda Guerrero García Rojas & Daniel Adrián, 2014. "La vulnerabilidad de la economía yucateca ante limitaciones en la disponibilidad de agua subterránea. Un enfoque de insumo producto," Ensayos Revista de Economia, Universidad Autonoma de Nuevo Leon, Facultad de Economia, vol. 0(2), pages 77-104, November.
    6. Tiziano Distefano & Massimo Riccaboni & Giovanni Marin, 2014. "Global Virtual Water Trade: integrating Structural Decomposition Analysis with Network Theory," Working Papers 8/2014, IMT School for Advanced Studies Lucca, revised Aug 2014.
    7. Dario Diodato & Anet Weterings, 2012. "The Resilience of Dutch Regions to Economic Shocks. Measuring the relevance of interactions among firms and workers," Papers in Evolutionary Economic Geography (PEEG) 1215, Utrecht University, Department of Human Geography and Spatial Planning, Group Economic Geography, revised Aug 2012.
    8. Jakub Boratyński, 2015. "Ekonomiczne skutki eksploatacji gazu łupkowego," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 1, pages 55-82.
    9. Boratyński, Jakub, . "Ekonomiczne skutki eksploatacji gazu łupkowego," Gospodarka Narodowa-The Polish Journal of Economics, Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie / SGH Warsaw School of Economics, vol. 2015(1).
    10. Maurizio Ciaschini & Francesca Severini, 2010. "The Economic Impact of the Green Certificate Market through the Macro Multiplier Approach," Working Papers 2010.105, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    11. Fidel Aroche, 2018. "Estudio de la productividad y de la evolución económica en América del Norte. Una perspectiva estructural/A study on productivity and the economic evolution in North America. A structural perspecti," Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 33(1), pages 151-191.
    12. Kim, Dohoon, 2021. "Network analysis of robot ecosystems using national information systems," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    13. Timothy J. Kehoe & Kim J. Ruhl & Joseph B. Steinberg, 2018. "Global Imbalances and Structural Change in the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 126(2), pages 761-796.
    14. Eduardo Amaral Haddad & Alexandre Alves Porsse & Wilson Rabahy, 2013. "Domestic Tourism and Regional Inequality in Brazil," Tourism Economics, , vol. 19(1), pages 173-186, February.
    15. Ferrari, Alessandro, 2019. "Global Value Chains and the Business Cycle," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Docweb) 1908, CEPREMAP.
    16. Dobrescu, Emilian, 2013. "Modelling the Sectoral Structure of the Final Output," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 59-89, October.
    17. Constantin ANGHELACHE & Alexandru MANOLE & Mădălina-Gabriela ANGHEL, 2017. "Using the input-output model in macroeconomic analysis and forecasting studies," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(2(611), S), pages 21-32, Summer.
    18. Daniel Croner and Ivan Frankovic, 2018. "A Structural Decomposition Analysis of Global and National Energy Intensity Trends," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2).
    19. Lach, Łukasz, 2022. "Optimization based structural decomposition analysis as a tool for supporting environmental policymaking," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    20. Arne J. Nagengast & Robert Stehrer, 2016. "Accounting for the Differences Between Gross and Value Added Trade Balances," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(9), pages 1276-1306, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C67 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Input-Output Models

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aes:amfeco:v:1:y:2014:i:35:p:390. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Valentin Dumitru (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aseeero.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.