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Using the Leontief Matrix to Estimate the Impact of Investments upon the Global Output

Author

Listed:
  • Dobrescu, Emilian

    () (National Institute for Economic Research, Center for Macroeconomic Modeling, Member of the Romanian Academy, Bucharest)

  • Gaftea, Viorel

    () (EDATA SRL, Bucharest)

  • Scutaru, Cornelia

    ()

Abstract

The study presents in the first chapter the applied methodology and the data used for the empirical research. The economic activities were grouped into 10 sectors by aggregating the extended input-output tables for Romania (with 105 branches). The chosen reference year is 2007 - the last year for which such statistical recordings were available. The second chapter examines some of the Romanian economy’s structural features revealed by the matrices A and (I-A)-1, insisting on the driving effects of interdependencies (direct and indirect) generated by cross-sector productive flows. The third chapter focuses on the impact of gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) upon the output. On the one hand, the implications of changes in volume are estimated (for example, data on 2007 are recalculated for a variation of +/-5% in the GFCF). On the other hand, the influence of the sectoral structure of the indicator in question is quantified with the help of three different macroeconomic simulations. Further possible developments of the current investigation are discussed at the end of the paper.

Suggested Citation

  • Dobrescu, Emilian & Gaftea, Viorel & Scutaru, Cornelia, 2010. "Using the Leontief Matrix to Estimate the Impact of Investments upon the Global Output," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 176-187, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2010:i:2:p:176-187
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Harris, David, 1997. "Principal Components Analysis of Cointegrated Time Series," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(04), pages 529-557, August.
    2. Breusch, T S, 1978. "Testing for Autocorrelation in Dynamic Linear Models," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(31), pages 334-355, December.
    3. Massimiliano Marcellino & Carlo A. Favero & Francesca Neglia, 2005. "Principal components at work: the empirical analysis of monetary policy with large data sets," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(5), pages 603-620.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Dobrescu, Emilian, 2013. "Modelling the Sectoral Structure of the Final Output," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 59-89, October.
    2. Emilian Dobrescu, 2013. "Restatement of the I-O Coefficient Stability Problem," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 2(1), pages 1-67, December.
    3. Dobrescu, Emilian, 2012. "Restatement of the I-O Coefficient Stability Problem," MPRA Paper 48567, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Dobrescu, Emilian, 2013. "Restatement of the I-O Coefficient Stability Problem," Working Papers of Macroeconomic Modelling Seminar 132601, Institute for Economic Forecasting.
    5. Emilian Dobrescu & Viorel Gaftea, 2012. "On the Accuracy of RAS Method in an Emergent Economy," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 14(32), pages 502-521, June.
    6. Scutaru, Cornelia & Fomin, Petre & Stanica, Cristian, 2010. "Prospects for the Evolution of the Economic Sectors’ Behavior," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(5), pages 120-142.
    7. Gaftea, Viorel, 2013. "The Input-Output Modeling Approach to the National Economy," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 211-222, June.
    8. Tounsi, Said & Ezzahid, El Hadj & El Alaoui, Aicha & Nihou, Abdelaziz, 2012. "Key sectors in the Moroccan economy: An application of input-output analysis," Economics Discussion Papers 2012-59, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    9. ELALAOUI, Aicha & EZZAHIDI, Elhadj & TOUNSI, Said & NIHOO, Abdelazziz, 2011. "Key sectors in the Moroccan economy: an application of input-output analysis," MPRA Paper 56822, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2012.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    input-output analysis; multipliers; macroeconomic simulations;

    JEL classification:

    • C67 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Input-Output Models

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