The Accuracy Of General Government Balance Forecasts In Romania
Economic forecasts are an essential building block for a budgetary anticipation in order to determine the budgetary objectives and to sustain the tax and expenditure plans. In Romania the surveillance process is ensured by the use of budget programs. The aim of this paper is to improve the budgetary planning by recommending the use of the forecasted general budget balance provided by the institution with the highest accuracy during the crisis (2008-2013). More types of projections were analyzed during the recent economic crisis and the IMF forecasts for this indicator outperformed those provided by Dobrescu model and the European Union. Therefore, the recommendation is related to the use of IMF predictions in establishing the next budgetary plan for 2014 and 2015. Moreover, this research also brings improvements in the methodological framework, by proposing some aggregated accuracy indicators (S1, S2, S3 and S measures) for solving the problem of contradictory results of different accuracy indicators.
Volume (Year): 7(1) (2015)
Issue (Month): 1 (March)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://cse.uaic.ro|
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Leal, Teresa & Pérez, Javier J. & Tujula, Mika & Vidal, Jean-Pierre, 2007. "Fiscal forecasting: lessons from the literature and challenges," Working Paper Series 843, European Central Bank.
- Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002.
"Comparing Predictive Accuracy,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-144, January.
- Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 1995. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 253-263, July.
- Francis X. Diebold & Robert S. Mariano, 1994. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," NBER Technical Working Papers 0169, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Emilian Dobrescu, 2013. "Updating the Romanian Economic Macromodel," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 5-31, December.
- Robert Buckle & Kunhong Kim & Julie Tam, 2002. "A structural var approach to estimating budget balance targets," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(2), pages 149-175.
- Robert A Buckle & Kunhong Kim & Julie Tam, 2001. "A Structural VAR Approach to Estimating Budget Balance Targets," Treasury Working Paper Series 01/11, New Zealand Treasury.
- Teresa Leal & Javier J. Pérez & Mika Tujula & Jean-Pierre Vidal, 2008. "Fiscal Forecasting: Lessons from the Literature and Challenges," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 29(3), pages 347-386, 09.
- Jürgen Hagen, 2010. "Sticking to fiscal plans: the role of institutions," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 144(3), pages 487-503, September. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:jes:wpaper:y:2015:v:7:i:1:p:167-178. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Alupului Ciprian)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.