IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/dug/actaec/y2014i5p39-51.html

Forecast Intervals for Inflation Rate and Unemployment Rate in Romania

Author

Listed:
  • Mihaela Simionescu

    (Institute for Economic Forecasting)

Abstract

The main objective of this research is to construct forecast intervals for inflation and unemployment rate in Romania. Two types of techniques were employed: bootstrap technique (tpercentile method) and historical error technique (root mean square error method- RMSE). The forecast intervals based on point forecasts of National Bank of Romania (NBR) include more actual values of quarterly inflation rate during Q1:2011-Q4:2013. The proposed prediction intervals for quarterly inflation and unemployment rate contain the registered values. Considering as constant the error from previous year, we will build forecast intervals for annual inflation and unemployment rate based predictions provided by two anonymous experts on the horizon 2004-2015.All the forecast intervals for inflation rate based on first expert expectations included the actual values during 2004-2013.

Suggested Citation

  • Mihaela Simionescu, 2014. "Forecast Intervals for Inflation Rate and Unemployment Rate in Romania," Acta Universitatis Danubius. OEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 10(5), pages 39-51, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:dug:actaec:y:2014:i:5:p:39-51
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://journals.univ-danubius.ro/index.php/oeconomica/article/view/2504/2246
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Weihua Guan, 2003. "From the help desk: Bootstrapped standard errors," Stata Journal, StataCorp LLC, vol. 3(1), pages 71-80, March.
    2. Emilian Dobrescu, 2013. "Updating the Romanian Economic Macromodel," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 5-31, December.
    3. Gospodinov, Nikolay, 2002. "Median unbiased forecasts for highly persistent autoregressive processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 111(1), pages 85-101, November.
    4. Croitoru, Lucian, 2013. "What Good is Higher Inflation? To Avoid or Escape the liquidity Trap," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 5-25, October.
    5. Mihaela BRATU, 2012. "Forecast Intervals for Inflation in Romania," Timisoara Journal of Economics, West University of Timisoara, Romania, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 5(17), pages 145-152.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Simionescu, Mihaela, 2017. "Prediction intervals for inflation and unemployment rate in Romania. A Bayesian approach," GLO Discussion Paper Series 82, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    2. Diaconescu Diana Raluca & Botezatu Hortensia Paula, 2015. "National Bank Of Romania Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism During The Crisis," Annals - Economy Series, Constantin Brancusi University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 2, pages 327-333, April.
    3. Müller, Ulrich K. & Wang, Yulong, 2019. "Nearly weighted risk minimal unbiased estimation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 209(1), pages 18-34.
    4. Birgitta Rabe & Mark P. Taylor, 2012. "Differences in Opportunities? Wage, Employment and House-Price Effects on Migration," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 74(6), pages 831-855, December.
    5. Croitoru Lucian, 2014. "The Liquidity Trap, Democracy and Central Bank Independence," Scientific Annals of Economics and Business, Paradigm, vol. 61(1), pages 1-14, July.
    6. Birgitta Rabe, 2011. "Dual-earner migration. Earnings gains, employment and self-selection," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 24(2), pages 477-497, April.
    7. Paolo Crosetto & Alexia Gaudeul & Gerhard Riener, 2012. "Partnerships, Imperfect Monitoring and Outside Options: Theory and Experimental Evidence," Jena Economics Research Papers 2012-052, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
    8. Stanislav Anatolyev & Nikolay Gospodinov, 2012. "Asymptotics of near unit roots (in Russian)," Quantile, Quantile, issue 10, pages 57-71, December.
    9. H. Colleen Stuart, 2017. "Structural Disruption, Relational Experimentation, and Performance in Professional Hockey Teams: A Network Perspective on Member Change," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 28(2), pages 283-300, April.
    10. Zi‐Yi Guo, 2021. "Out‐of‐sample performance of bias‐corrected estimators for diffusion processes," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(2), pages 243-268, March.
    11. Paolo Crosetto & Alexia Gaudeul & Gerhard Riener, 2012. "Partnerships, Imperfect Monitoring and Outside Options: Theory and Experimental Evidence," Jena Economics Research Papers 2012-052, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
    12. Emilian Dobrescu, 2015. "Net Indirect Taxes and Sectoral Structure of Economy," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 5-29, June.
    13. Mihaela SIMIONESCU, 2015. "The Accuracy Of General Government Balance Forecasts In Romania," CES Working Papers, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 7(1), pages 167-178, March.
    14. Antonio Caparrós Ruiz, 2017. "Foreign Workers’ Time Use in Spain: Evidence from the First Decade of the Twenty-First Century," Journal of International Migration and Integration, Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 159-182, February.
    15. Claudiu Tiberiu Albulescu & Daniel Goyeau & Cornel Oros, 2015. "On the Long Run Money-Prices Relationship in CEE Countries," Economic Research Guardian, Mutascu Publishing, vol. 5(1), pages 73-96, June.
    16. Emilian Dobrescu, 2014. "Attempting to Quantify the Accuracy of Complex Macroeconomic Forecasts," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 5-21, December.
    17. Birolini, Sebastian & Cattaneo, Mattia & Malighetti, Paolo & Morlotti, Chiara, 2020. "Integrated origin-based demand modeling for air transportation," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    18. Mihaela Simionescu (Bratu), 2014. "The Performance of Predictions Based on the Dobrescu Macromodel for the Romanian Economy," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 179-195, October.
    19. Rachel Bocquet & Christian Le Bas & Caroline Mothe & Nicolas Poussing, 2017. "CSR, Innovation, and Firm Performance in Sluggish Growth Contexts: A Firm-Level Empirical Analysis," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 146(1), pages 241-254, November.
    20. Carmen Pilar Martí Ballester, 2020. "Does Concurrent Management of Mutual Funds and Pension Plans Create Conflicts of Interest?," Ensayos de Economía 18307, Universidad Nacional de Colombia Sede Medellín.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:dug:actaec:y:2014:i:5:p:39-51. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Daniela Robu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/fedanro.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.