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What Good is Higher Inflation? To Avoid or Escape the liquidity Trap

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  • Croitoru, Lucian

    (NBR, Romania)

Abstract

on reflating the economy in order to release it from the liquidity trap. We show that the following problems may arise in this context: linking inflation expectations to base money developments; increased uncertainty on the possible reversal of quantitative easing by central banks in close correlation with banks’ lower liquidity preference after escaping the liquidity trap; higher inflation when central banks fail to reverse the quantitative easing at an adequate pace for a long period; losses reported by central banks once economies exit the liquidity trap and yields go up. Given the recurrence of the instability cycle and the higher probability of the economy to avoid falling into the liquidity trap if inflation is relatively high when a bubble bursts, then such inflation is preferable to a relatively low one. This paper proposes an enhancement of the monetary policy objective by shifting from explicit or implicit targeting of low and stable inflation to targeting moderate and stable inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Croitoru, Lucian, 2013. "What Good is Higher Inflation? To Avoid or Escape the liquidity Trap," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 5-25, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2013:i:3:p:5-25
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Mihaela Simionescu, 2014. "Forecast Intervals for Inflation Rate and Unemployment Rate in Romania," Acta Universitatis Danubius. OEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 10(5), pages 39-51, October.
    2. Diaconescu Diana Raluca & Botezatu Hortensia Paula, 2015. "National Bank Of Romania Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism During The Crisis," Annals - Economy Series, Constantin Brancusi University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 2, pages 327-333, April.
    3. Claudiu Tiberiu Albulescu & Daniel Goyeau & Cornel Oros, 2015. "On the Long Run Money-Prices Relationship in CEE Countries," Economic Research Guardian, Mutascu Publishing, vol. 5(1), pages 73-96, June.
    4. Croitoru Lucian, 2014. "The Liquidity Trap, Democracy and Central Bank Independence," Scientific Annals of Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 61(1), pages 1-14, July.
    5. Bianca Steliana PÎRA (BEȘA), 2015. "Eurozone And The Low Inflation Risk," SEA - Practical Application of Science, Romanian Foundation for Business Intelligence, Editorial Department, issue 8, pages 149-153, June.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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